Both afternoon baseball contests have seen the favorites fall at least 15 cents on the money line. Besides these games we have two other MLB contests which are on the move along this in the NBA Playoffs and Stanley Cup Playoffs. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (530-474 L192D)
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NBA – (737) WASHINGTON at (738) ATLANTA 8:05 ET TNT
Hard to say specifically if the rumors about John Wall being a game time decision are true completely accurate, but he did participate at the morning shoot-around. Did this in any way impact the Washington slipping from +9 to +7.5, hard to say. I think it is more of reflection the Wizards are not making life easy for Atlanta and they will look to tighten up the interior defense, which allowed the Hawks to shoot 47.1 percent, doing a great deal of damage in the lane. With Washington 9-1 ATS on the playoff road, they are worth a look even at a lower price. Doug’s Choice – Lean Washington
MLB – (955) ATLANTA at (956) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET SS, FSN-O
Raisel Iglesias (0-0, 5.40 ERA) is back with Cincinnati after a spell in Triple-A and the Reds are hoping for big things from this Cuban defector who became the first Red since Mike Leake in 2010 to reach the majors without playing in the minors. While Cincy fans are excited, those constructing MLB picks are less so and at their favorite sportsbooks they have lowered Cincinnati 20 cents to -125. Atlanta has dropped nine of their last 11 on the road and they are 1-4 so far on a nine-game trip, with the pitching staff catching much of the blame with a 5.62 ERA – 9.58 from the bullpen. I am no fan of Braves starter Eric Stults (1-3, 4.84) and would probably pass on the side and consider the Over with two starters that could go either way and a pair of really crummy bullpens. Doug’s Choice – Pass on side, Play Over
MLB – (965) MINNESOTA at (966) DETROIT 7:05 ET FSN-NOR, FSN-D
Maybe it’s the name those making sports picks don’t like – Kyle Lobstein (3-2, 3.00) – the Tigers starting pitcher. Lobstein numbers suggest he might be lobbing the ball to the plate with only 15 punch-outs in 33 innings of work and Detroit have crumbled from -150 to -130. However, the Tigers starter has a groundball percentage of nearly 59% which is one of the highest in the AL, which means opposing batters are beating the ball in the ground. While Detroit hurler is largely unknown, I would prefer to go his direction than align myself with Ricky Nolasco, who has 2-1 record in spite of a 9.00 ERA. Doug’s Choice – Detroit wins
NHL – (23) WASHINGTON at (24) N.Y. RANGERS 7:35 ET NBCSN
Washington had their chance to put the Rangers away in Game 6 and failed to do so, setting up a decisive Game 7. New York opened up as -175 home favorite and has tumbled to -150. Part of the concern is how evenly matched these teams are with every conflict decided by single goal. In fact, dating back to last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, the Rangers have played in a postseason record 13 consecutive one-goal outcome games. In New York’s favor is they are 9-0 on home ice in elimination encounters and have won their last five Game 7’s dating to 2012, which includes the past two years over Washington. The Capitals have to be sick blowing yet another 3-1 series lead to be in this position and when this has happened they are 0-4. Doug’s Choice – Lean New York
Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The L.A. Dodgers are 13-0 at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Washington is 16-2 OVER vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
NBA ATS Trend
Golden State is 22-8 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.
NHL Totals Trend
N.Y. Rangers are 10-3 UNDER at home after a road game where both teams scored three or more goals the last two seasons.