For the first time in the NBA Finals, there is significant line movement in a game and I will break it down. Also, we have three other MLB contests where the numbers are twirling! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (10-6 L4D)
NBA – (705) GOLDEN STATE at (706) CLEVELAND 9:00 ET ABC
This is like a NCAA Tournament game, where one team is used to playing fast and is confronted by an opponent who is playing the shot clock and suffocating defense. Golden State could easily be down 0-2 as they open Game 3 on the road in northern Ohio. Sportsbooks opened this confrontation as a Pick or Cleveland -1 and those placing NBA picks have moved the Warriors to -1.5. Here is why IMO bettors have made this choice. It starts with Stephen Curry, who will not possibly have such a poor game and look for more high screens in the Golden State offense to free Curry as a driver or dime-feeder. LeBron James has been unreal, but the difference between this contest and Game 2 is – travel and one day off, compared no travel and two days off. His will was awesome to watch but his tank was empty in OT of both games. This should be hotly contested once again, but Warriors feel like the play.
Bettors Choice – 81% on Golden State (at press time) – Doug’s Choice – Lean Golden State covers
MLB – (903) PHILADELPHIA at (904) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET FSN-O, CSN-P
Cincinnati finally beat Cole Hamels for the first time last night, yet those studying the betting odds have the Reds slipping 20 cents to -130 against Aaron Harang (4-6, 2.45 ERA) and Philadelphia. The Phillies have only won five of the right-hander’s dozen starts, but don’t blame Harang who has six consecutive quality starts in May and posted a 1.62 ERA in that span. The Cincinnati offense has been in good form registering nine or more hits in eight of their last 10 outings and with the Phillies 7-21 on the road this season, tough to make a case for them in spite of Harang throwing so well.
Bettors Choice – 53% on Cincinnati – Doug’s Choice – Lean Cincinnati
MLB – (909) ST. LOUIS at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET FSN-MW, ROOT-RM
I understand the Colorado has won 11 of 17 and pounded the Cardinals 11-3 last night, I get it. But for St. Louis to fall 20 cents to -120 with Michael Wacha (8-1, 2.18) pitching, I think this offers real value on the road team. The Cards are 10-1 in Wacha’s starts and on the road the tough right-hander is 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA in seven outings, each resulting in a Cardinals’ victory. Yes I know Matt Holliday is unlikely to play due to injury, but when the Redbirds are in a +125 to -125 money line range this season, they are 8-0 when Wacha climbs to the top of the mound.
Bettors Choice – 78% on St. Louis Doug’s Choice – St. Louis wins
MLB – (929) CHIC. CUBS at (930) DETROIT 7:08 ET CSN0C, FSN-D (side and total)
In Chicago, Cubs fandom is saying all the right things about Jon Lester but a 4-4 record with a 3.86 ERA is not the stuff of legends. Even on his team Lester has only the third-best ERA and win record and his team has gone from +100 to +115 at Detroit. The Tigers ended their eight-game losing streak to the other club from the Windy City and returns home with struggling Anibal Sanchez (3-7, 5.69) on the mound. The Tigers right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his last four starts and is 1-9 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 the last two seasons. (Tigers Record) With the current form of both hurlers, those placing sports picks have taken the total from 7.5 to 8.5 in spite of Lester posting a 31-13 UNDER mark as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.
Bettors Choice – 57% on Detroit and 91% on the OVER – Doug’s Choice – Lean Chicago and Under
Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Top Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
James Shields of the Padres is 13-2 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Trend
Roenis Elias of the Mariners is 8-0 UNDER this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Dallas Keuchel of the Astros is 18-6 after a loss the last two seasons.
NBA Totals Trend
Golden State is 12-4 UNDER in the NBA Playoffs this spring.