Time is a wasting with another weekend ahead, here are today’s biggest line moves, free picks and top trends for today and the next few days. Quick note, bettors are expecting the worst on Kyrie Irving and the Golden State is up to -7.5 from -6. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (903) SAN FRANCISCO at (904) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET CSN-BA, NBC-10
The trust factor is just not there for Tim Lincecum (5-3, 3.00 ERA) who has surrendered eight runs and 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings over his last two starts. San Francisco is facing floundering Philadelphia and those constructing MLB picks have pared the Giants from -145 to under -130 at most sportsbooks visited. San Francisco being on a five-game losing streak does not help either with their offense averaging 2.8 RPG, but they should have a shot at fixing this against Jerome Williams (3-5, 5.49) who has given up at least three runs in 10 straight starts. The damage is not often done early as Williams has a batting average allowed of .247 the first time through the lineup and .355 thereafter. This looks like ideal spot for San Fran to reenter the win column. Doug’s Choice – San Francisco wins
MLB – (913) ST. LOUIS at (914) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET FSN-MW, SNLA
St. Louis beat Los Angeles for the eighth time in 11 tries (includes postseason) last night and it does not get easier this evening for the Dodgers. They will face Carlos Martinez (5-2, 3.13), who over his last three starts has a string of 20 1/3 scoreless innings, the longest streak among starting pitchers in 2015. L.A. will send Brett Anderson (2-3, 3.42) to toe the rubber and he was a Martinez victim last Sunday 3-1. The Dodgers were released as -130 home favorites but baseball bettors prefer St. Louis and the betting odds now have the L.A. at. -115. My first thought was the Cards here, but Anderson and Los Angeles are 4-1 at home this season, they get a swift turnaround on Martinez in just six days which should help and the Cardinals are 0-10 after scoring seven runs or more in consecutive contests since 2013. Doug’s Choice – Los Angeles wins
MLB – (915) BALTIMORE at (916) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET MASN, STO
A Chris Tillman (2-7, 5.94) vs. Shaun Marcum (2-0, 5.49) matchup just screams runs right? Evidently not, as the MLB odds on the total have slipped from 8.5 to 8. Yes it is true both offenses are scuffling to reach home plate in their last seven tries with Baltimore at 2.4 RPG and Cleveland at 3.7. This is where the confusion sets in; Tillman has an ERA over 5 in five starts against the Indians yet each game finished UNDER. The Tribe this season is 12-4 OVER at home vs. RH starters, but they are 14-4 UNDER vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs a game on the season. What is the correct side, I still prefer the OVER at this number. Doug’s Choice – Lean Over
MLB – (923) DETROIT at (924) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET FSN-D, CSN-C
The Tigers have dropped seven straight and the last time they made it to eight was 2005. The Tigers have averaged 2.3 runs and hit just .208 over their last 10 games, which is key reason for the total tumbling from 8.5 to 8 on the south side of Chicago. Also, the White Sox offense all season has not been able to score, averaging 3.7 RPG. Maybe the Tigers will awake from their slumber, but with Chicago a -125 home favorite and being 9-1 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this year and blend that with Sox starter Jose Quintana 7-0 UNDER working on five or six days rest, hard to argue with adjusted figure. Doug’s Choice – Play Under
Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
L.A. Angels are 16-0 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Trend
Atlanta is 18-6 OVER vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. (Possible all weekend)
MLB Run Line Trend
Minnesota is 21-4 in night games this season.
NHL Money Line Trend
Tampa Bay is 11-3 off a home loss this season. (Saturday)
NBA ATS Trend
Cleveland is 0-7 ATS away after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games this season. (Sunday)