The NBA Finals commence this evening and basketball bettors have been satisfied with the side and total numbers and there has been little movement. Not the case in baseball and we have four contests where significant line moves have occurred. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (951) CHIC. CUBS at (952) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET MLBN
Evidently those making MLB picks are no fans of history as Washington has fallen from -125 to -110 home favorites against Chicago in the series opener. Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 4.73 ERA) has tossed 29 consecutive scoreless innings over his last four starts against the Cubs, allowing 11 hits while striking out 29. No question Gonzalez has struggled at times this season giving up at least four earned runs in half his 10 starts. Nevertheless, the Chicago offense has been bleak in losing six of nine, tallying only 2.5 RPG. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta (4-4, 3.18) has given up 10 runs (seven earned) in 13 innings over his last two starts but has stopper qualities with a 11-2 record if his team is off two or more losses since last season. (Cubs record) Doug’s Choice – Slight lean Cubs
MLB – (953) CINCINNATI at (954) PHILADELPHIA 7:10 ET MLBN
Aaron Harang (4-5, 2.02) could hardly pitched any better all season and despite conceding a total of four earned runs in his past three trip to the bump, he’s lost twice (Phillies all three), backed with five total runs. With how well Harang is throwing, he should be able to limit his old team, Cincinnati, who is scoring 3.9 RPG. Because Philadelphia is not exactly the Texas Rangers of five to seven years ago offensively, the total has shrunk from 7.5 to 7. This Phils average a pathetic 3.1 RPG and Harang is 12-2 UNDER, under the lights since last season. It seems the only this goes past the sportsbooks number if the Reds bullpen blows another one like last night. Doug’s Choice – Lean Under
MLB – (965) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (966) TEXAS 8:05 ET CSN-C, FSN-SW
The final game of the series has the total sinking from 9 to 8.5 despite those making sports picks being witness to a pair of massive blowouts. I’m not inclined to agree with this despite both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon (1-0, 3.45) and Yovani Gallardo (5-6, 3.88) having ERA’s under 4. What excites me about the lower number is both bullpens have ERA’s over 4, which could lead to late run action from either team. Plus, road teams like the White Sox when the total is 8.5 to 10, starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs in his last two outings, against opposing starting a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two starts are 33-12 OVER since 2011. Doug’s Choice – Play Over
MLB – (969) TAMPA BAY at (970) SEATTLE 10:10 ET SUN, ROOT-NW
Seattle was just swept by the Yankees and is a miserable 1-6 on this homestand, thus is makes sense for the Mariners to be drooping home favorites, down 15 cents to -120 against the betting odds. Erasmo Ramirez (3-2, 5.53) of Tampa Bay should know what to expect having been traded on March 21st from Seattle and will take on a lifeless M’s lineup averaging 2.5 RPG in their last eight. The Rays have to be feeling spry in winning four of their last five on this road trip and will see the tosses of Roenis Elias (2-2, 3.07), who is 3-12 at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse the last two seasons. (Team’s Record) Doug’s Choice – Lean Tampa Bay
Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Manager Paul Molitor of the Twins is 24-10 playing against a team with a losing record.
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Terry Collins of the Mets is 23-9 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game.
MLB Run Line Trend
Manager Terry Francona of the Indians is 12-22 in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better.
NBA Totals Trend
Golden State is 11-3 UNDER in the playoffs this year.