With the weekend here, baseball bettors have been busy adjusting the numbers and we have four contests to review and see if we agree or disagree. Looked at both Game 5’s in the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals and at least initially, the numbers are stable. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll and we will return on Monday. (16-12 L7D)
MLB – (955) ATLANTA at (956) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET FSN-S, SNY
Atlanta has been flailing in losing six of nine after climbing above .500 and has been defeated seven times in last nine meetings with New York. In spite of this they fallen 15 cents from +110 to -105 and will face Father Time, known in baseball these days as Bartolo Colon (8-4, 4.52 ERA), who has regained his steady form in his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA, after a rough patch. New York salvaged one game against San Francisco yesterday and is also 3-6 in last nine and they will face Alex Wood (4-3, 3.36), who has won three of four. I’ll side with the elder statesman in Colon who is 17-6 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last two seasons. (Team’s Record)
Bettors Choice – 54% on Atlanta (at press time) – Doug’s Choice – New York wins
MLB – (959) WASHINGTON at (960) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET MASN2, FSN-W
How bad have things gotten for Washington in losing 10 of 13, even with Jordan Zimmermann (5-3, 3.18) pitching they are a falling favorite, down from -125 to under -110 at most sportsbooks to last place Milwaukee. The Nationals lineup has been depleted be injury and when they do score, the pitchers are allowing too many runs. This leads to a pretty amazing number about the Nats who are 2-9 in road games playing against a team with a losing record this season. Nonetheless, the Zimmermann is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers and his mound foe Mike Fiers though somewhat effective of late, is 1-8 versus a NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse the last two seasons. (Brewers Record)
Bettors Choice – 78% on Washington – Doug’s Choice – Washington wins
MLB – (965) CLEVELAND at (966) DETROIT 7:05 ET STO, FSN-D
After losing eight in a row, Detroit has taken three of four and opens a series with Cleveland that matters to both teams in their pursuit of Kansas City. David Price (5-2, 2.70) will toe the rubber for the Tigers and he has a 1.48 ERA in his last four outings and on the year Detroit is 10-2 in his starts. Those placing sports picks do not consider him a mortal lock going up against Cleveland’s talented Danny Salazar (6-1, 3.50) who averages 11.82 strikeouts per nine innings. The Tigers were -150 homes faves and have dumped to -125. While I really like Salazar, Price is 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 10 career starts against the Indians and Detroit has won 12 of 14 versus the Tribe.
Bettors Choice – 79% on Detroit Doug’s Choice – Detroit wins
MLB – (975) SEATTLE at (976) HOUSTON 8:10 ET MLBN
He might be ‘The King’ but Felix Hernandez (9-2, 2.51) is not unstoppable. With Nelson Cruz a game time decision again with back spasms, Seattle has wilted from -170 favorites to -135. Houston has lost seven straight and while defeating King Felix is yeoman’s work, the Astros are 6-1 against Seattle and 4-0 at home this year. The Mariners feeble offense which average 3.5 RPG is down to 2.3 in their past seven contests, which is how many runs the Astros have averaged in their losing streak. It is never easy to not back Hernandez, but you should be aware his team is 0-6 revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.
Bettors Choice – 53% on Seattle Doug’s Choice – Lean Seattle
Vegas Pro Insiders Daily Top Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Texas is 14-5 playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Available all weekend)
MLB Totals Trend
Oakland is 16-4 OVER after three consecutive games versus a division rival this season. (Available all weekend)
MLB Run Line Trend
Kansas City is 23-7 when playing with a day off the last two seasons.
NBA Totals Trend
Golden State is 17-5 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more this season. (Sunday)
NHL Money Line Trend
Tampa Bay is 14-3 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game this season. (Saturday)