We start a new month and it will be filled with plenty madness ahead. In a small way, it feels like it starts tonight because some of the line moves are rather sharp. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (40-33 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (505) PHILADELPHIA at (506) MIAMI 7:35 ET CSP, SUN
This Eastern Conference encounter we have two teams well below .500, who have been raking in the cash for their backers. Philadelphia has covered eight straight and is 13-4 ATS the past five weeks, while Miami is 16-3 ATS in the last six weeks. Those betting basketball have stated their preference and moved the Heat from -7.5 to -9.5 point home favorites. Given the success of both teams of late, I’d rather take the points in this situation of both being equally hot against the spread.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia
NBA – (509) CLEVELAND at (510) BOSTON 8:05 ET ESPN
Cleveland has beaten Boston twice this year, both times at home (0-1-1 ATS), but the key component, Kevin Love, will not be in the fray this time. Undoubtedly, that is part of the reason why the Cavaliers have been flipped from -1 to +1 on public sentiment. The Celtics still bring an ‘iffy’ feel into this contest, having dropped three of four and on a 1-4 ATS spiral, mostly predicated on poor shooting. If Boston wants to prove they are on Cleveland’s level, they have to win this game.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
CBB – (529) MICHIGAN at (530) NORTHWESTERN 7:00 ET BTN
All the TV talking heads are saying Northwestern will be in the Big Dance for the for time ever, but are they really that secure? Losses to Michigan tonight and Purdue this weekend, might require a win or even two in the conference tourney for the Wildcats. Having lost five of seven SU and ATS, thanks to making 39 percent or less of shot attempts, confidence in wavering on the ‘Cats who have been switched from -1 to +1 against a out of nowhere Wolverines crew that has won four of five. This is really difficult call and I’ll lean with hotter squad.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan
CBB – (547) VCU at (548) DAYTON 8:00 ET CBCSN
Massive matchup in the A-10 with first place on the line. Dayton holds a one-game lead and takes the title with a victory over second place VCU. The Rams get the top seed in the tourney by winning out, because they would have swept the Flyers this season. While the winner certainly matters, the betting focus is on the total, which has crumbled five points to 137.5. There are not necessarily a number of strong indicators about a lower scoring affair, other than VCU’s offense a bit choppy recently. An UNDER looked solid at first, but is coin flip at this price.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under