Tracking Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 28


We wrap up the second month of the year  today and head directly into March Madness. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (39-30 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

 NBA – (705) DENVER at (706) CHICAGO 8:05 ET ALT, CST-CH		Since winning three in a row a month ago, Denver has been laboring at 4-8 SU and ATS. In spite of Chicago playing well in winning and covering four in a row, the Bulls has been sent from -4.5 to -2.5. If you feel the Nuggets will win outright, you have might have a shot since the eventual winner has covered 12 straight Denver games. And they are 14-4 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread. Chicago does not figure to be a pushover and is 24-11 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Chicago

NBA – (709) UTAH at (710) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 ET RTRM+, FSOK

Two simmering teams will collide this evening. Both the Jazz and Thunder have three game-winning streaks (and ATS winners). Since giving up 112 points in consecutive contests, Utah has returned to tight defensive ways and only allowed 90.7 PPG in their last four outings and this has led to the Jazz making noise and they have elevated from a Pick to -1.5 on the road. Key factor to consider is Utah is 2-8 SU in this series when they fail to reach 100 points of late. Since nine of the last 10 meetings have resulted in UNDER’s, it was puzzling to see the total lifted from 203 to 204.5. Not seeing that happen.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Over and 50-50 Split on sides

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Oklahoma City and Play Under

CBB – (729) E. MICHIGAN at (730) C. MICHIGAN 7:00 ET  W-ESPN

After hitting at or above 70% all season on OVER’s in the MAC, the last week has brought about a complete reversal, with the UNDER at 10-2. Lots of trend bettors finally paid the price of this hot angle and are taking precautions, dropping the total from 175 to 170 in this directional Michigan matchup. Turns out I have several conflicting ways to view this total and will go with a slight lean on the UNDER, with a system that is 26-5 favoring a lower score.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under


A couple of Big 12 offensive juggernauts do battle, but the feeling is amongst bettors we will not see a repeat of earlier 96-86 Oklahoma State win and those betting basketball have helped lower the total from 164 to 159. Why would happen, it turns out both squads have made defensive improvements and during each team’s current five game-winning streak, they have permitted just over 72 PPG. Count me on board for this line move.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 45-48 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 21-28-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 64-74-1 ATS


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