In theory, our choices for NFL selections, both against the spread and for teasers, become harder with very large numbers posted on enough different games for this upcoming week.
For example, take New Orleans at -16.5 over the New York Jets. This is no easy choice for NFL picks. The same is true for six-point teasers. If you like the Saints, reducing them to -10.5 does offer some value going thru lesser key numbers of 13 and 14, yet, ideally, we would prefer to be under 10. On the other hand, the Jets at +22.5 might also be intriguing, but New York makes one turnover that Drew Brees converts into a touchdown and that little ‘safe haven’ is erased.
Last week we missed out on a sweep of four-team teaser, but we still hit on combos of two and three-teamers, moving teaser record to still highly profitable 31-5 and 38-10 since we started this season.
Having to be dig a little deeper to find the best value, here are this week’s selections.
The Lions are still chasing playoff berth but are hardly an imposing team, with a score differential of +9. With Detroit lowered as a favorite versus a potentially dangerous Chicago club, we picked up the added value of just needing the Lions to win the game. The Bears have long been known as a terrible December road underdog and even in whipping Cincinnati last week, in their last 49 road contests in the final four weeks of the season they gave been outscored by average by 7.8 points a game.
No Carson Wentz means a much lower figure on Philadelphia, which should work to our advantage. Nick Foles is about as good as any team could hope to have as a backup, especially on a top level squad. From teaser perspective, this is ideal situation, passing thru key numbers of 7,6 and 3 and the only way we lose if the Eagles win is by a single point. (There has only been 5 one-point outcomes this season.) Invariably, the Giants will make a mistake or two and Philly cashes in.