Tony’s Free MLB Play #953 Padres +134 @ #954 Colorado Rockies -145 // OU 10.5
We’re going to go out on a limb here and say the Padres will end their three-game scoreless streak today. You can raise the fences at Coors Field (as the Rockies have done for this season), but it’s still at a mile high, it still has the biggest outfield square footage in the National League, and air density still will be significantly lower there than anywhere else around the majors, causing breaking pitches to break less.
The Padres lineup isn’t great, but it’s not as bad as it showed in three consecutive shutouts against the Dodgers. They also get a shot at Jordan Lyles, who is a step down from the first three in the Rockies rotation — Jorge DeLaRosa, Chad Bettis and Tyler Chatwood — in terms of stuff and ability. Lyles pitched with mixed results in 10 starts last season (5.14 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) before being shut down due to toe surgery. HIs spring was nothing special. His success lies in his extreme groundball tendencies.
Colin Rea gets a tough first assignment. He’s a promising right-hander who had a strong 2015 minor-league season before making six starts with the Padres (4.26 ERA but an encouraging 3.45 FIP, meaning the results should have been better). He gets a Rockies team coming off a feel-good series win at Arizona, relishing the unexpected Trevor Story impact. Going contrarian here against a too-big number for Lyles.
PLAY: PADRES +134