Today’s Top Line Moves

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The beginning of the weekend offers many possibilities for the sports bettor and they have already roared loudly. At Wrigley Field, light winds blowing out towards leftfield have helped raise the total between the Astros and Cubs from 8.5 to 9 with another 90 degree day expected. Tampa Bay heads north to Kansas City and the series opener total is being pummeled; with opening figure of 8.5 up to 9 or higher.  One other major move has happened in Arena Football tonight as the Pittsburgh at Philadelphia battle in the Keystone State has seen the home team go from 6.5 to 10-point favorite. Consider this, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points having lost three out of their last four games are 26-5 ATS the last 15 years. Here is a look at the rest of big Line Moves and do not forget to review the MLB nuggets, which are 105-74, 58.6 percent on the season.

MLB – St. Louis at Pittsburgh 7:05 EDT FSMW, RT

A logjam at the top of the NL Central could have been expected this season, it just didn’t figure to include Pittsburgh. The Pirates look to continue their winning ways against St. Louis and three near or complete sellouts will happen at PNC Park. All sportsbooks released a total of 7 for a Chris Carpenter (5-7, 3.69 ERA) vs. Paul Maholm (6-9, 3.06) pitching matchup, however, after many wagers placed, the new number is 7.5. From analytical perspective this doesn’t add up as Carpenter has a 1.66 ERA the last month and Maholm is 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last five starts at home. A simmering Albert Pujols might be reason enough to move the total since his 26 homers and 77 RBIs in the Steel City is the most he’s acquired in any visiting ballpark. Nonetheless, with Carpenter pitching close to normal and Maholm 12-1 UNDER, under the lights, this could go either way. 3DW PositionPlay Under

MLB – Atlanta at Cincinnati 7:10 EDT FSS, FSOH

Pitchers Jair Jurrjens and Bronson Arroyo are a study in contrasts. Jurrjens (12-3, 2.26) was an All-Star and has a 1.96 ERA away from Atlanta. Arroyo (7-8, 5.57) has an eye-popping 8.66 ERA in his last three starts. Taking stock of both pitchers, the baseball bettors are thinking the Reds junk-balling right-hander will have more of an influence on the outcome and elevated the total from 8 to 8.5. This does get tricky since the Braves are 15-6 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and with Atlanta off a triumph at Colorado, Jurrjens is 11-1 UNDER in road games after a win the last three seasons. 3DW PositionPlay Under

MLB – Toronto at Texas 8:05 EDT RSN, KTXA

Baseball is really a funny game as Texas was the talk of baseball riding a 12-game winning streak and tonight they return home attempting to avoid a three game losing stretch. After being frustrated by Jered Weaver yesterday, the Rangers hope the more hittable tosses of Jo-Jo Reyes (5-7, 4.94) will lead to more runs after posting a zero on the scoreboard. Sports bettors think Texas is primed for a good outing and raised them from -180 money line chalk to -195 or more. Don’t look for the Blue Jays to hide in the bushes, as they have won eight of 10 and averaged 7.3 runs per games in this spell. Toronto also likes the Rangers Ballpark surroundings, having won eight of last 14. 3DW PositionToronto wins

MLB – Detroit at Minnesota 8:10 EDT FSD, FSNO

After crawling back to the fringes of the AL Central race, Minnesota has not been able this week to enhance their position at home, losing three of five against two of the teams they are chasing. The Twins have three more chances this weekend to make waves and they are being looked upon kindly this evening. Oddsmakers released Minnesota as +110 underdogs, however they have been shuffled to -103 or lower. Detroit’s Max Scherzer (10-5, 4.53) has a solid record, but his earned run average explains his up and down nature. The Twins Brian Duensing (7-7, 4.14) takes the ball in search of his fourth consecutive win and has not allowed an earned run over 13 innings (two home starts) against the Tigers. With Scherzer 6-15 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 (Team’s record) and Duensing and friends 11-1 in Target Field night games the last three seasons, just one logical conclusion to be made. 3DW Position – Minnesota wins

MLB – Colorado at Arizona 9:40 EDT RT, FSAZ

Arizona’s Daniel Hudson (10-5, 3.56) is 7-0 with a 3.04 ERA in his last 12 starts and hasn’t lost in almost 10 weeks. Against a dissonant Colorado offense, that alone is why the total could tumble from 9 to 8.5. But wait, there is more. The Rockies Aaron Cook (0-5, 5.82) is more hittable than a car in a demolition derby. Cook has conceded a total of 71 hits and walks combined in 38 2/3 innings this season and has an ERA of 8.26 on the road. Hudson will even have a chance to add to his .359 batting average and the D-Backs are 20-7 OVER at Chase Field after a game with a combined score of four runs or less. Right off the top this appears to be an Over play, but Hudson is 11-2 UNDER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10, with an average score of 7.1 total runs. 3DW Position – Play Under

3DW Bonus Info

MLB Money Line Nugget

Kirk Gibson of Arizona is 13-3 against the ML after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base. 

MLB Totals Nugget

Clint Hurdle of Pittsburgh is 19-5 UNDER vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

MLB Run Line Nugget

Eric Wedge of Seattle is 2-11 against the RL in road games after six or more consecutive losses as the skipper since 1997.

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