For Tuesday we have five line moves to cover and we will ignore two significant ones pertaining to the Dodgers and Yankees, since they were already chalky favorites and have kept growing. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (155-107, 59.1% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (951) ST. LOUIS at (952) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSMW, CSP (side and total)
St. Louis has been an underachiever all season at 31-37 (-12 units), but nobody is calling for that to happen tonight at floundering Philadelphia. The Cardinals are up 15 cents to -155. Here is the rub, yes, we know the Phillies really stink, but Cards starter Mike Leake (5-6, 3.14 ERA) has a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts and his team is 1-9 on the road this month. The total is also on the move from 9 to 9.5 with the Phils Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.91) 0-4 with a 7.57 ERA in his last five starts. Let’s go along with the higher score and not be completely shocked if Philly wins with Hellickson 6-0 when working on five or six days rest this season. (Phillies Record)
Betting Trend – 81% backing Philadelphia and 59% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Philadelphia and Over
MLB – (957) PITTSBURGH at (958) MILWAUKEE 6:40 ET RTPT, FSWI
When you breakdown the rosters of these NL Central combatants, there is not that much difference. Milwaukee does have more offense, yet putting them side by side, it is not dramatic. That is partly why the Brewers have gone backwards as favorites from -135 to -115 versus Pittsburgh. Though the records say otherwise, neither Chad Kuhl (1-6, 5.61) nor Zach Davies (7-3, 4.91) have been especially effective. One element I cannot stop thinking about is the Brew Crew at 12-1 after a 5-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Milwaukee wins
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MLB – (973) BOSTON at (974) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET NESN, FSKC
With Chris Sale (8-3, 2.82) facing the Royals rookie Matt Strahm (2-3, 3.67), making his second big league start, it sounds like a complete mismatch and probably is. However, the betting interest in this affair has been on the total, up from 7.5 to 8.5. Kansas City’s offense has finally come out of hibernation in scoring 6.2 RPG in their last nine tries, but Boston has only touched home plate 11 times in their past five contests. With Sale pitching, the Red Sox offense stumbling and K.C. 22-12 UNDER at home, prefer the lower score.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (975) HOUSTON at (976) OAKLAND 10:05 ET RTSW, CSCA
Coming off a crummy homestand, Houston won the first tilt of the road trip last night to move to baseball-best 24-8 in the away gray’s. Even with rookie Francis Martes (1-0, 5.19) the Astros starter against Sonny Gray (2-2, 4.44), Houston was released as a -120 favorite. Those placing baseball bets have flipped the A’s around to a -110 home fave. Not sure this line will hold and the ‘Stros are 10-1 away after batting .315 or better over a 5-game span this season.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 130-137-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 84-73-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 204-196-11 ATS