Quite a bit of action for line moves today. Besides the side and total in all three of our games today in football and baseball, the Cubs are up 20 cents on the money the money line against Arizona, along with the total rising from 8 to 8.5 and the Mets/Rockies total is down a full run to 11.5. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (191-154) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFLX – (241) DALLAS vs. (242) ARIZONA 8:00 ET NBC (side and total)
To the surprise of nobody, the total has fallen from 37 to 34.5. This is an organized scrimmage, plain and simple and a lot players will be participating that will not even be on either team come Week 1. As far as Dallas going from +1 to -2, I would only surmise the Cowboys being the more public team comes into play and the fact Dallas backups are generally younger, which implies they hare hungrier.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Dallas and 54% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight leans on Under and Dallas
MLB – (965) N.Y. YANKEES at (966) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET YES,STO (side and total)
Excellent series which might even evolve into a playoff series in a couple months. The betting action is on Corey Kluber (8-3, 2.90 ERA) and Cleveland, up from -130 to -155 or higher. Kluber has a 1.86 ERA since coming off the DL 11 starts ago and faces a New York lineup that has been slumping, scoring a full run less than their scoring average of 5.3 RPG in their past seven outings. Sony Gray (6-5, 3.43) will make his Yankees debut and he also has an ERA under 2.00 in his last half dozen starts, leading to total sinking from 8.5 to 8. I like the Tribe in this spot and will go along with the lower score.
Betting Trend – 60% backing New York and total 50-50 split
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Cleveland and Under
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MLB – (973) PHILADELPHIA at (974) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET CSP, FSW (side and total)
As we are all aware, baseball’s a fickle sport. Philadelphia off five straight wins flew to Anaheim and has scored one time in two games versus two below average Angels starters and been whipped twice. They will attempt to salvage one game in the series, but have blown up from +130 to +150 underdogs. With suddenly no offense and Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.56) hardly inspiring confidence, this is easy to understand. They will take on the Halos best pitcher, Parker Bridwell (5-1, 2.83), who is making the most of his opportunity, having just turned 27. Though the Angels offense is hardly reliable at 4.2 RPG, in their past eight contests they have averaged 6.2 RPG and this has the total on the move from 8.5 to 9.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Anaheim and 68% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Anaheim wins and Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 149-166-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 102-87-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 238-226-11 ATS