VPID College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Oct.13-14

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Time for another big weekend of college football and we have all the latest line moves and updates on previous contests. Two that we do not have is Clemson and TCU becoming bigger favorites, however, those are predicated on Tigers quarterback now playing and K-State regular QB now officially out. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (285-252) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Saturday for NFL

CFB – Friday – (111) WASHINGTON STATE at (112) CALIFORNIA  10:30 ET  ESPN  *New*

There has been a fair amount of speculation about Washington State coming up flat after two big Pac-12 games and playing there second in a row in the road. In spite of that kind of talk being out there, the Cougars have climbed from -13.5 to -16. I honestly do not like this line, but will lean with Wazzu because the Bears offense line is giving up sacks in large quantities and Washington State has the defense to keep them coming.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Washington State

Doug’s VPID Take Lean Washington State

CFB – (129) CONNECTICUT at (130) TEMPLE   12:00 ET  ESPNN  *New* (side and total)

Though this AAC affair will not attract a lot of people’s attention, a good chunk of those betting football have been following it. Temple has slid from -12.5 to -9.5 and the total has gone the same direction in dropping from 62 to 58. I see value in the Owls as road underdogs like Connecticut  that are outscored by opponents by 10 or more points a game, after two straight tilts where 70 total points or more were scored, are 5-24 ATS. I am less crazy about the total now, thinking that was right move in lowering it.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Temple, 94% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take Temple covers, Lean Under

CFB – (137) TEXAS TECH at (138) WEST VIRGINIA  12:00 ET  ESPNU

West Virginia has played Virginia Tech and TCU close and came up short, while Texas Tech still looks the same, but has played better than expected. At least some bettors have liked what they have seen from the Red Raiders and lowered them from +6 to +3.5 in Morgantown. Keep in mind the Mountaineers are only 1-8 ATS at home off a road loss. UpdateBetting markets satisfied with spread in this Big 12 battle, but total has plummeted from 78 to 72.5. I still believe Texas Tech has a shot to win here and had this game scored at 71 points.

Betting Trend – Was 60% backing Texas Tech, now 35% and 67% on Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Texas Tech and Under

CFB – (145) TULANE  at (146) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL   7:00 ET

Tulane brought back 16 starters and has only had one bad game and that was Oklahoma, which happens to many teams. Otherwise, the Green Wave are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU and are generating wagering enthusiasm being pumped up from -11 to -13. FIU is also 3-2 and has beaten opponents slightly worse clubs than them and been outclassed by superior opposition. UpdateA bump on Tulane to -13.5. I am not saying the Green Wave do not deserve to be this large a favorite, however, the last time they were double digit favorites against FBS competition was in back to back games in 2008 and they did not cover either of them

Betting Trend – Was 80% backing Tulane, now 28%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean FIU

CFB – (147) BOSTON COLLEGE at (148) LOUISVILLE  12:20 ET  ACCN

Louisville does not have enough upper tier players to take down the elite squads in the ACC. Against those that have varying weaknesses, the Cardinals are expected to outclass them and have been elevated from -19.5 to -21.5 versus Boston College. As has been the case the last several years, the Eagles offense cannot score (16.3 PPG) and this will be their hindrance against Louisville. UpdateThis line has been completely unchanged since Tuesday morning, though when looking at the betting trends the support for Louisville has diminished.

Betting Trend –  Was 76% backing Louisville, now 54%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Louisville

CFB – (167) UNLV at (168) AIR FORCE  2:00 ET  ATTRM

At first was taken aback that Air Force would have tumbled three points to -7.5 against UNLV. When I began looking at the statistical profile of each team, it was very similar on offense and defense, which changed my perspective, though the Falcons have played harder schedule. Still prefer Flyboys with Rebels 3-16 ATS away after a loss by 28 or more points. UpdateAbout 20 percent of books checked have take UNLV to +8 with the rest holding steady. I’m sticking with the Falcons.

Betting Trend – Was 84% backing Air Force, now 58%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Air Force

CFB – (171) APPALACHIAN STATE at (172) IDAHO  5:00 ET ESPN3

In this SBC showdown, Appalachian State has the more talented squad and is drawing that support for football bettors in being taken from -10 to -13. The Mountaineers in three previous meetings are 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) and have enjoyed tremendous edge in speed. Idaho has closed the gap in talent and App. State lacks usual offensive firepower. UpdateThis line has remained as steady as the allegations against Rick Pitino as presented in his termination letter at Louisville. That fine, I will still support Moscow’s finest, Moscow Idaho this is.

Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Appalachian State, now 80%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Idaho

CFB – (183) OHIO STATE at (184) NEBRASKA  7:30 ET  FS1

Nebraska could not contain Wisconsin running game, which means Ohio State will test their will from the get go. Since the Buckeyes loss to Oklahoma, there focus has increased and those betting football have raised them from -21.5 to -24 in Lincoln. With the Cornhuskers unable to stop the run and turnover-prone, Ohio State could put up a big number. UpdateAt all the sportsbooks, Ohio State is now sitting at -24.5. Who can argue with that? More Buckeye leaves on the helmet.

Betting Trend – Was 68% backing Ohio State, now 64%

Doug’s VPID TakeOhio State covers

CFB – (189) BAYLOR at (190) OKLAHOMA STATE  3:30 ET  FS1

Oklahoma State’s confidence has take hit the last two games and they are off a bye looking to regain swagger and pound somebody in Stillwater. Baylor is 0-5, but has looked better the last couple games in covering the spread. The Bears have climbed from +23 to +25.5 and if passing offense clicks they could cover. If Cowboys have pass rush, lights out. UpdateStarting to see numbers from 26 to 27 in this Big 12 tilt. As mentioned, Baylor covers if they have time to throw. Not sure the Bears will consistently.

Betting Trend – Was 54% backing Oklahoma State, now 77%

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Oklahoma State

CFB – (217) BOISE STATE at (218) SAN DIEGO STATE   10:30 ET  CBSSN  *New*

Football bettors are holding up the letter D with a piece of a fence in the other hand, lowering the total from 51 all the way to 45.5. While I understand the sentiment, this is too drastic a switch and honestly can see this total going back up before game time. I will take the OVER with the Aztecs 13-4 OVER after scoring 20 or more points at halftime in two consecutive clashes.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take Play Over

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (18-10-2 ATS) in order: Mississippi State, Ohio U., Alabama, Michigan and Texas A&M

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (15-15 ATS) in order: UConn/Temple  Under, Oregon/Stanford UNDER, Tex. A&M/Flor. UNDER, Houston /Tulsa UNDER, and Ark./Bama OVER

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 218-221-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 144-112-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 347-302-14 ATS

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