For line moves today, three games and four total free picks for a lazy day. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (108-66, 62% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (951) L.A. DODGERS at (952) COLORADO 8:40 ET SNLA, RTRM (side and total)
The Rockies are rolling, winners of eight of 11 series, including four in a row and they have best franchise record after 35 games (22-13, +11.2 units). Los Angeles, after a sluggish start has won 10 of 12 and five in a row. The Dodgers opened as -110 favorites with Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-4, 4.05), but once baseball bettors took a closer look they made Colorado a -110 fave, seemingly in spite of starter Tyler Anderson (2-3, 6.69). It all but impossible to ignore the Dodgers are 1-10 in road games after four or more consecutive wins. Another development is the total falling from 11.5 to 10.5 and that would seem to be a function of the bullpens, not the starting pitchers.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Los Angeles and 63% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Colorado and Under
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MLB – (953) PITTSBURGH at (954) ARIZONA 9:40 ET RTPT, FSAZ
Though Zack Greinke (3-2, 3.09) has worn several uniforms in his career, one steady aspect of his performance is he and his teams win a lot of games at home, which is why it is so surprising to see Arizona slither from -140 to -125 against a Pittsburgh squad that was just swept in L.A. and has lost eight of 11. Why this has happened is Pirates starter Gerrit Cole (1-3, 3.14) has a 1.73 ERA in his last four outings and the Bucs have won five of six in Phoenix. I’m not buying it with Pittsburgh averaging 2.3 RPG in their last seven and Greinke 98-38 as a home favorite of -110 or higher for his career. (Team’s Record)
Betting Trend – 71% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona wins
MLB – (969) BALTIMORE at (970) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET MASN, MASN2
The home team has won all three Beltway Series games this week, the last two in dramatic late inning fashion. Washington actually started as +100 home underdog, however, by noon time they were a -115 favorite. Dylan Bundy (5-1, 2.17) was why Baltimore was favored and he’s the first Orioles hurler to start a season with seven quality starts in 43 years. The Nationals are relying on A.J. Cole (1-0, 1.50), who is making his second start of the season. With the Birds 14-5 against right-handed starters and 16-6 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season, I will side with them.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 105-115-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 56-60-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 153-172-7 ATS