In line moves, we have a rare pro basketball one as the NBA Finals FINALLY get started. And while we only have four night baseball contests, three involve line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (136-92, 59.6% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
NBA – (701) CLEVELAND at (702) GOLDEN STATE 9:00 ET ABC
Golden State and Cleveland finished first and fourth in the regular season in scoring and they are the top two scoring teams in the playoffs. Yet, despite this, the oddsmakers release of 226 has deemed too high and the total has been lowered to 223.5. Three considerations cannot be ignored and they are the Warriors are first in field goal percentage defense and three-point shooting defense and the Cavaliers are 8-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Look for rust from both teams with so much time off.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (909) BOSTON at (910) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET NESN, MASN
After losing seven straight, Baltimore took the series from the Yankees and opens fairly important four-game set with Boston. The Red Sox have started to play to form in winning eight of 10 and have been bumped from -110 to -130. Though the Orioles Wade Miley (1-3, 3.02 ERA) has a good earned run average, he continues to walk too many hitters. The O’s will see Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 2.77) on the hill for the BoSox and they are 0-9 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better this season.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston wins
MLB – (911) N.Y. YANKEES at (912) TORONTO 7:07 ET YES, RSN
After a horrific start (2-11), Toronto can reach .500 tonight with a victory. The Blue Bays have won eight of nine as the offense has finally started to score runs in bunches with Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki making more regular appearances on the lineup card. Toronto has been jettisoned from -130 to -150 over New York, as they have won 13 of 19 at home against the Yankees the past two years. Marco Estrada (4-2, 3.15) will pitch in the series opener against CC Sabathia (5-2, 4.42) and I have a very small lean with the Yanks since the Jays are 3-7 vs. lefties.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
MLB – (913) MINNESOTA at (914) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET FSNO, FSW
Minnesota’s pitching staff needed yesterday’s day off to fly to Anaheim. The Twins have lost four in a row and their pitchers have been ravaged for 48 total runs in the process. Adalberto Mejia (1-1, 4.64) will try and deliver at least a quality start if not more for the Twinkies. Mejia will oppose the Angels Alex Meyer (2-2, 5.79), whose most notable achievement is being 6’9. The total has shrunk from 9 to 8.5, yet I cannot support that move and realize Minnesota is 37-15 OVER after three or more consecutive Over’s.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 121-128-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 73-68-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 189-183-11 ATS