Heavy action in line moves as one might expect and we grabbed four of the most important or largest of the day in evening action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (9-3 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CBB – (723) INDIANA vs. (724) IOWA 6:30 ET ESPN2
These Big Ten teams met once this season and there was no shortage of baskets with Iowa a 96-90 winner at home on closing total of 160. Oddsmakers made a slight adjustment downward to 158.5, and wagering public was not satisfied and dropped it even further to 155. Both teams like to fly up and down the floor and given the likely pace, unless both are really off on their shot attempts, I can see a total around 160. Iowa is 7-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, with average score just over 160
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (731) XAVIER vs. (732) BUTLER 7:00 ET FS1
Once again sportsbooks are doing great work in setting spreads and early in the day not many big line moves on spreads. The one exception is this Big East Battle, which has Butler on the rise over Xavier from -4.5 to -6.5. Even when the Musketeers were completely healthy, this was not the same defensive team were are used to seeing from Xavier. The Musketeers are only 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests and all three victories came again lowly DePaul. I would not take Butler at more than this price, nonetheless, Xavier is still 1-9 ATS as an underdog this season.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Butler
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Butler
CBB – (747) TOLEDO vs. (748) OHIO U. 6:30 ET W- ESPN
The MAC has been known for high-scoring games all season long and those betting basketball have taken this total and bumped it up from 146.5 to 149. In the only other matchup between these clubs, the total score was 155 against posted total of 153.5. Toledo has slowed down both offensively and defensively, as they are on a 5-0 UNDER streak, with average total score in the mid-130’s. Put me down for a lower score as the Rockets slow the game down to their liking and this ends up in the low 140’s by game’s end.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (757) KANSAS STATE vs. (758) BAYLOR 9:30 ET ESPNU
Baylor has been strong all season on defense and if they get good guard play they will score more points than expected. Kansas State has seen their fair share of rough shooting games of late, not even making 37 percent of attempts on three occasions in their past seven. If this sounds like the total could be either way, I agree and was a touch surprised to see the total lifted from 128.5 to 130.5, though neither figure is really out of line. The two season totals were in this range, one at 128.5 and the other at 130 and these Big 12 combatants split them. My intel has conflicting information, but I’ll lean with the OVER based on tournament system this is hitting 66.6 percent thus far in 2017.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 54-63 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 26-36-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 78-98-1 ATS