Thought Provoking Line Moves and Free Picks for Mar. 9th


Heavy action in line moves as one might expect and we grabbed four of the most important  or largest of the day in evening action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (9-3 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

CBB – (723) INDIANA vs. (724) IOWA 6:30 ET ESPN2

These Big Ten teams met once this season and there was no shortage of baskets with Iowa a 96-90 winner at home on closing total of 160. Oddsmakers made a slight adjustment downward to 158.5, and wagering public was not satisfied and dropped it even further to 155. Both teams like to fly up and down the floor and given the likely pace, unless both are really off on their shot attempts, I can see a total around 160. Iowa is 7-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, with average score just over 160

Betting Trend – 78% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CBB – (731) XAVIER vs. (732) BUTLER 7:00 ET  FS1

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comOnce again sportsbooks are doing great work in setting spreads and early in the day not many big line moves on spreads. The one exception is this Big East Battle, which has Butler on the rise over Xavier from -4.5 to -6.5. Even when the Musketeers were completely healthy, this was not the same defensive team were are used to seeing from Xavier. The Musketeers are only 3-6 and 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests and all three victories came again lowly DePaul. I would not take Butler at more than this price, nonetheless, Xavier is still 1-9 ATS as an underdog this season.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Butler

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Butler

CBB – (747) TOLEDO vs. (748) OHIO U. 6:30 ET W- ESPN

The MAC has been known for high-scoring games all season long and those betting basketball have taken this total and bumped it up from 146.5 to 149. In the only other matchup between these clubs, the total score was 155 against posted total of 153.5. Toledo has slowed down both offensively and defensively, as they are on a 5-0 UNDER streak, with average total score in the mid-130’s. Put me down for a lower score as the Rockets slow the game down to their liking and this ends up in the low 140’s by game’s end.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CBB – (757) KANSAS STATE vs. (758) BAYLOR 9:30 ET  ESPNU

Baylor has been strong all season on defense and if they get good guard play they will score more points than expected. Kansas State has seen their fair share of rough shooting games of late, not even making 37 percent of attempts on three occasions in their past seven. If this sounds like the total could be either way, I agree and was a touch surprised to see the total lifted from 128.5 to 130.5, though neither figure is really out of line. The two season totals were in this range, one at 128.5 and the other at 130 and these Big 12 combatants split them. My intel has conflicting information, but I’ll lean with the OVER based on tournament system this is hitting 66.6 percent thus far in 2017.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 54-63 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 26-36-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 78-98-1 ATS


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