This has been an unusual season for Texas, who has gone about their business without a great deal of fanfare and is two games away from playing for the national championship. In many ways, the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) season has paralleled quarterback Colt McCoy’s.
Last season, Big 12 field generals were putting up gaudy figures and scoreboards moved like the numbers on the New York Stock Exchange. However this season, McCoy hasn’t always been sharp, Texas has had their share of slow starts, yet when you take away the Oklahoma defensive struggle, they have outscored teams 45-13, awfully impressive. Coach Mack Brown’s team is 5-1 ATS in last six contests as Big 12 road chalk.
The presumption is coach Mike Sherman is wise enough not to bring out the white helmets again, compared to traditional maroon, since Texas A&M; is 0-2, losing by 83 points this season. For Aggies fans, it has been both feet in the stirrups and holding the reins tight, with losses of 65-10 and 62-14, mixed in with wins like 56-19 over UAB and 52-30 upset of Texas Tech in Lubbock.
Texas A&M; (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) figures to get leveled by the Longhorns, however two years ago they won in College Station 38-30 as touchdown underdogs and in 2005, gave a game effort before falling 40-29 as 28-point underdogs to then # 2 Texas. Off last week’s 38-3 blowout of Baylor, it’s easy to understand that prosperity seldom takes comfort in Aggie-land, with Texas A&M; 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.
The Aggies have covered four of last five at home vs. the Horns and have to have quarterback Jerrod Johnson supply a big game. Texas A&M; has shown capacity to play well and if pressured, Johnson can test the Texas secondary with his big arm, which could make things interesting. Coach Sherman’s team averages 268.8 yards passing and Texas has surrendered 240 yards or more passing four times this season (2-1-1 ATS), which adds intrigue if nothing else. The Aggies are 18-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13.
Bookmaker.com has Texas as 21-point favorites with total of 62.5. The Longhorns should stop the Aggies running game, being first in the nation at 50.1 yards per game allowed. The Horns are 9-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last game. (53 total net rushing yards allowed in last two contests) McCoy should have no problems negotiating 100th ranked Texas A&M; defense and they are 24-9 ATS off two or more consecutive Overs.
ESPN will have this Thanksgiving treat at 8:00 Eastern, with Texas is 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS vs. rival A&M;, however the home team is 8-2-1 ATS.