Super Bowl Props Line Movement

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    Last week I was asked to write an article about various Super Bowl props and give my expert opinion on what I thought how each might turn out from wagering perspective. What I did on Friday was revisit those same prop bets and see what changes the betting public had made. Hope you enjoy and have a profitable day betting the Super Bowl.

    New York Giants Total Team Points

    Over 26.5 Points (-120) moved to -130

    Under 26.5 Points (-110) moved to Even

    3DW PositionThe Giants will get their points, just not a bundle of them. Like most New England opponents, New York will pile of the yards but have to settle for less than what they could achieve and fall UNDER this number.

    Team to Receive the opening kickoff

    New York -180  moved to -260

    New England +150  moved to +200

    3DW PositionNew York is the designated visiting team as established by the NFL and will have the choice in the coin flip. If the Giants call heads, they will win and choose to defer, meaning the Patriots receive the ball first.

    Total Sacks by both teams

    Over 4 (-125) moved to -150

    Under 4 (-105) moved to +120

    3DW PositionThough both offensive lines will have been coached up to prevent sacks, the defensive pressure will be too much. For the entire season, New York averages three sacks a game and New England 2.6. Play Over

    Will the Patriots score a touchdown in the 1st quarter

    Yes  – 115 moved to -110

    No  – 115 moved to -120

    3DW PositionTom Brady will be extremely focused early in the contest; throwing short, quick, accurate passes to avoid the Giants pass rush, taking his team into the end zone in the opening 15 minutes.

    Eli Manning – Total Passing Yards

    Over 310.5 (-125) moved to -135

    Under 310.5 (- 105) moved to +105

     

    A number of Eli Manning Super Bowl props have bettors convinced he will have big game.

    3DW PositionIt’s easy to pick on the Patriots secondary, but I see Tom Coughlin looking for a balanced attack and running outside the tackles and being more selective in picking New York’s spots tossing the ball.  The Giants average 26 rushes a game and New England has given up the same amount which reduces Manning’s pass yards. I’ll bet UNDER with Eli around 275 yards passing.

    Eli Manning – Total Completions

    Over 23.5 (-130) moved to -140

    Under 23.5 (Even) moved to +110

    3DW PositionThough Manning’s yards will be down, his accuracy will not be versus beleaguered Pats secondary and he’ll end up at 25 or 26 completions.

    Eli Manning – Total Attempts

    Over 38.5 (-115) moved to -125

    Under 38.5 (-115) moved to -105

    3DW Position As long as the Giants are not down by more than 13 points, no reason to abandon the run, which will lower Manning’s attempts and cause me to wager UNDER.

    Eli Manning – Longest Completion

    Over 43.5 (-115) moved to -130

    Under 43.5 (-115) moved to -105

    3DW PositionWatch for New York to throw long passes to Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz within 10 yards of the sidelines and beat a Patriots cornerback who will not have safety help in time.

     

    Brandon Jacobs – Total rushing yards

    Over 30.5 rushing yards (-115) moved to 29.5 yards

    Under 30.5 rushing yards (-115)

    3DW PositionJacobs is what I would call a –volume running back- meaning the more carries he receives the better he plays. Jacobs his strictly a power runner and New England defense has very good size and can lock up runners like him. Play Under

     

    Danny Woodhead – Total rushing yards

    Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115) moved to -125

    Under 23.5 rushing yards (-115) moved to -105

    3DW PositionFor certain games and teams. Woodhead is a solid change of pace runner. This does not look like the right situation because of what New York has in the front four. Another prop out there is Woodhead at 6.5 carries and if we make an even six, I’m not sure we will average four yards a carry. Play Under.

    Hakeem Nicks – Total Catches

    Over 5.5 (Even) moved to -125

    Under 5.5 (-130) moved to -105

    3DW PositionThe action was headed in the wrong direction on this prop, but has turned around in the last week. Nicks is a truly big time pass-catcher and in these type of contests, quarterbacks tend to go where they are most comfortable, which in Manning’s case is with Nicks. Play Over.

     

    Rob Gronkowski – Total Catches

    Over 5.5 (-150) moved to -115

    Under 5.5 (+120) moved to -115

    3DW PositionThis prop wager was headed to 6 last week, but once it became known that Gronkowski is unlikely to run all the usual pass routes effectively (especially those that mean cutting to his left or right) because of his ankle, the number has steadily retreated.

    Wes Welker – Total Catches

    Over 6.5 (-130) moved to -165

    Under 6.5 (Even) moved to +135

    3DW PositionNo question that Welker will be the top target all day for Brady and the New England tight ends will try and assist him to bust a few long gainers by setting up picket fence blocking scheme on drag routes across the middle. Look for Welker to be an ever more important target in the second half on the presumption Gronkowski’s ankle swells or becomes more problematic after the long halftime.

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