In afternoon baseball action, the red-hot Redbirds are up 50 cents on the money line to -270 with Adam Wainwright toeing the slap against the Metropolitans. Also, faith is diminishing against Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals down 15 cents as favorites at Petco Park. We found two other baseball contests where the numbers are shifting, including the big pitcher’s duel in the Lone Star State. Please take the time to read over the latest Line Moves as we share our opinions on the outcomes. We invite you to review the records of handicappers at Sports-Watch to see if they are accordant with how you prefer to wager.
NBA – (741) SAN ANTONIO at (742) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET ESPN (side and total)
While most fans prefer the underdog, basketball bettors are more frozen-hearted and just want to be on the winning side. Though Golden State has won the even-numbered games in the series, it is San Antonio drawing the support based on its skill and knowledge in going for the knockout in this Western semi-final. The Spurs were at +1 and have been spun around to -1.5 point favorites. While we agree with the logic, it is impossible to ignore the Warriors are 4-0 SU and ATS after a playoff setback, showing their resiliency. San Antonio has alternated shooting either under 40 percent or over 50% the past four contests. Not sure what to expect of the Spurs tonight, but given the side and total (down a point to 194.5), Tony Parker and crew are 16-6 UNDER when they score 93 to 98 points. S-W Take – Slight lean with Golden State and Under
Doc’s Sports is among the lead handicappers for the NBA Playoffs.
MLB – (955) CINCINNATI at (956) MIAMI 7:10 ET FSOH, FSFL
Mat Latos (4-0, 3.04 ERA) has yet to lose in 2013 and has not been tagged with a defeat since August 24 (8 wins in a row). Despite this, he and the Reds have dwindling support, down to -155 or less after oddsmakers sent them out at -180. The reason for the revision is not the starting lineup for Miami, rather the Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (2-2, 3.65). Though the Miami season is just a quarter of the way over, the players know why they are 11-29. Yet, when they have talented rookie pitcher like Hernandez who gives them a chance to win, they play a little harder. While we agree Miami has shot (the Astros won yesterday at +300 plus), Latos is 22-4 (Team’s record) when a -150 or higher favorite. S-W Take – Cincinnati wins
MLB – (965) DETROIT at (966) TEXAS 8:05 ET FSD, FSSW
This is the kind of pitching matchup that makes baseball a great game. Justin Verlander (4-3 1.93) trades heat with Yu Darvish (6-1, 2.73) in the most anticipated contest of top line pitchers in the area since Nolan Ryan was still chucking for Texas. Verlander has been a touch less consistent this season and not ringing up as many triple digit pitches as in the past, but is still a big game pitcher. (Granted it is May) Darvish has matured in his second Major League season and his fastball mostly lives in the mid-90’s and he has a fine array of breaking stuff. Verlander is 7-2 (2.02 ERA) in 11 starts against Texas, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four outings at Rangers Ballpark and he and his club is attracting the attention, down to nearly even on the money line (-105) compared to starting at +115. Darvish is no slouch, having won all three starts against the Tigers. Whatever pitcher can check his emotions and use them positively will place their team in the best spot. S-W Take – Lean with Detroit
NHL – (5) NEW YORK at (6) BOSTON 7:35 ET NBCSN, TSN (side and total)
This Original Six pairing is set to be special. What makes this series so enticing is both team’s strengths are clearly obvious and so are their weaknesses. Each game will come down to executing properly or failing to. Boston was released as a -150 favorites and quicker than a New York minute they were down to -130. How the Bruins breakthrough against the shot-blocking Rangers defense and goalie Henrik Lundqvist will be an ongoing drama. The Blueshirts have won five of six the TD Garden, supporting the money flow. The total has began at U5 (-125), jumped to -145 and settled back at -140. New York is 10-2 UNDER in road games playing against a team with a winning record this season. S-W Take – New York wins and Under
Sports-Watch Weighty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
New York is 24-6 ATS against the first half line off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.
NHL Money Line Trend
San Jose is 1-8 in road games revenging a same season loss this season.
MLB Money Line Trend
Edinson Volquez and San Diego are 10-2 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse the last two seasons.