We have a trio of afternoon contests to start the baseball betting. Also, for the third consecutive day, the Nationals are a falling favorite and the Giants and Angels are facing similar declines on Wednesday. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
MLB – (903) CHIC. CUBS at (904) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET WCIU, CSN
Cole Hamels (3.87 ERA) is having a Joe Blanton-type season, as least record-wise at 4-13. And while Hamels has done his part for such an unsightly record, baseball betting observers are trenchancy, knowing he’s in the bottom 10 of qualified major league starters for run support. The left-hander has shown the ability to lock up the Cubs with a 1.25 ERA in his past five starts against them. The money line has been seen more mood swings than Lindsey Lohan, with Philadelphia starting at -150, zooming to -180 before settling back at around -165. Undoubtedly, Hamels is 0-9 when working on five or six days rest this season (Phillies record) is mind-numbing, but so is Travis Wood (7-8, 3.05) at 9-27 as an underdog of +100 or higher since last year. (Team’s record) S-W Take – Lean with Philadelphia
MLB – (909) L.A. DODGERS at (910) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET ESPN
The Cardinals burst the Dodgers road bubble last evening and look to take a lead in the series tonight. The first two games in the series have played under the total and more of the same is expected on Hump Day. The original total of 8 and slid to 7.5 with Ricky Nolasco (7-9, 3.78) matching pitches with Shelby Miller (11-7, 2.89). While Los Angeles is 26-13-1 UNDER in winning 32 of last 40 contests, on the season they are 10-2 OVER revenging a loss in which they scored one run or less this season. S-W Take – Lean Over
MLB – (915) DETROIT at (916) CLEVELAND 7:05 ET FSD, STO
Detroit leads Cleveland by six games in the loss column in the AL Central and it attributable to one simple premise; they are 11-3 against the Indians in 2013. The Tigers have won 10 straight thanks to incredible starting pitching and the entire staff has a miniscule ERA of 1.16 in this stretch. Cleveland manager Terry Francona was only partly exaggerating with his comment after losing Tuesday to Justin Verlander 5-1, “Detroit has four aces, which is why they are so good,” Francona said. The Tribe takes on another “ace” in Doug Fister (10-5, 3.52), who has rebounded from a rough patch earlier and has a 0.82 ERA in his past three starts. The Indians hope Danny Salazar (1-0, 1.50) can provide a lift in his second career start, and Cleveland has been lowered from +120 to under +110. While almost everything seems to favor the Tigers, Cleveland is 10-0 off two straight home losses against division rivals the past two seasons. S-W Take – Lean with Detroit
MLB – (921) N.Y. YANKEES at (922) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET YES, CSN
The Yankees are now nine games out (loss column) in the AL East and five back in the Wild Card race after losing a pair to the second-worst team in the American League. Making matters worse is normally reliable streak-crusher CC Sabathia (9-10, 4.78) is having an off-year and has not made it through six innings in his last four starts, going 0-3 with a Big Gulp-sized ERA of 10.07. After years of waiting for age to catch up with New York, it seemingly finally has and those betting on baseball have taken the Yankees from -120 to -105 (pick). It’s worth noting, AL road teams like New York, when the money line is +125 to -125 and are allowing 4.2 or less runs a game, after scoring three runs or less in four straight outings, are 12-44 since 1997. S-W Take – Lean with Chicago
MLB – (929) TAMPA BAY at (930) ARIZONA 9:40 ET SUN, FSAZ
Arizona has been about the only team to solve Tampa Bay lately, winning two in three tries the last eight days. The Rays are 10-0-1 in their last 11 series (discounting the one makeup game with Boston on July 29). The D-Backs have outscored the Rays 15-6 in the trio of tilts and are being given consideration even against Chris Archer (6-4, 2.65). The Snakes were +130 and are down to +115 versus Tampa Bay with Randall Delgado (4-3, 3.17) starting. It is still challenging to not back Joe Maddon’s bunch who are 12-2 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. S-W Take – Tampa Bay wins
Sports-Watch Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Manager Dale Sveum and the Cubs are 27-71 vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start).
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Walt Weiss and Colorado are 20-6 UNDER vs. a NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse.
MLB Run Line Trend
Manager Ned Yost and Kansas City are 80-44 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better.