Sports Watch Monitor Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends for NFL Week 3


I will be attending the football seminar at the Las Vegas Hotel this weekend, making this the last Line Moves article of the week. We will focus on the NFL for Week 3 and be back on Monday. Please note, all future lines are subject to change and this was written with the numbers we had at the time. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.

NFLX – Thursday (251) NEW ENGLAND at (252) DETROIT  7:30 ET  WBZ, WYYZ

Detroit Lions footballThe Lions are coming off an unsavory performance, being clocked by Cleveland 24-6 on the road. As we know, Week 3 reportedly is the most important contest of all the NFL preseason, in preparation for the start of the regular season. Detroit gained a measly 217 yards last week and New England has kind of front seven which could be problematic for the Lions offensive line. For those studying the NFL lines, they believe Detroit is the more desperate squad and moved them from -1.5 to -2.5. The Lions are 10-2 ATS in August non-conference clashes while the Patriots are on a 0-5 ATS streak in Week 3 of the preseason.  SWM Take – Lean with Detroit

NFLX – Friday (255) SEATTLE at (256) GREEN BAY 8:00 ET  CBS

It is well known Seattle is a preseason power house and they are expected to be one of the best teams in the NFL this year. The Seahawks have mauled their first two August opponents by a combined score of 71-20, for two easy wins and covers. Seattle opened as a three-point favorite at Lambeau Field which certainly seems odd; however, it is not the regular season. Not everyone is onboard with the release and the Seahawks have been lowered to -2 or -1.5, depending on the sportsbook. One consideration has to be Green Bay being an underdog at home and they are 11-2 ATS on the not so frozen tundra after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Nonetheless, it is impossible not be impressed with Seattle’s 13-3 ATS record off two straight covers. SWM TakeLean with Seattle

NFLX – Saturday (259) BUFFALO at (260) WASHINGTON 4:30 ET  NFLN

Under first-year head coach Doug Marrone, Buffalo put together two impressive wins over Indianapolis and Minnesota. They will seek a third over Washington and have the support of those betting NFL football, at least appraising the spread. The Bills will be without rookie EJ Manuel, who had made a strong case to be the starting quarterback, but with a “knee procedure”, he will out at least two weeks. This has not deterred bettors, who have shifted Buffalo from +3.5 to +1.5. Kevin Kolb will play most of the minutes for the Bills. Kirk Cousins will be on the field the longest of the Washington quarterbacks and coach Mike Shanahan will be looking for vast improvement off last week’s four turnover showing. The Redskins have covered six straight in Week 3 contests. SWM Take – Washington covers

NFLX – Saturday (263) CLEVELAND at (264) INDIANAPOLIS  7:00 ET  WKYC, My-IndyTV 23

Indianapolis Colts footballWhile the coaching staff carries a lot weight, when the owner of the team calls you out on Twitter and lets the coaches know he’s displeased with the team’s effort even in the first preseason matchup, you have to take it seriously. This is what Indianapolis did after Jim Irsay ranted and the Colts jumped on the New York Giants early and won 20-12 as two-point road dogs. The Colts offense has still not looked sharp averaging only 20 points and 266 yards a contest. Cleveland has been the better offensive club in averaging 25.5 PPG, with Brandon Weeden appearing very comfortable in coach Rob Chudzinski new offense. Those placing NFL bets are figuring a slightly lower anticipated score and lowered the total a point to 42.5. We nod in agreement. SWM TakeLean with the Under

NFLX – Sunday (281) MINNESOTA at (282) SAN FRANCISCO  8:00 ET  NBC

It’s exhibition football, nothing to worry about right? Don’t tell that to nervous Vikings fans who have seen their team start 0-2 and tallied a grand total of 29 points. Granted, Minnesota will have a much different look when Adrian Peterson starts regular duty, yet one cannot help but wonder if the Vikes offense is a 33 LP album in an I-Pod world. In fairness, the defending NFC champs San Francisco are not making the scoreboard flicker from abundant use, scoring only 21 points themselves. At this point, the consensus is both teams will save their best for the regular season and the total has been lowered from 41 to 40. SWM Take – Lean with the Under

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends


Kansas City is 4-16 ATS off a home loss. (Saturday)

NFLX Totals Trend

San Diego is 10-0 OVER after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. (Saturday)

NFLX First Half Trend

Chicago is 5-13 ATS against the first half line off a home win. (Friday)


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