For Wednesday, we snuck in a west coast afternoon game in which the numbers are moving and found an evening underdog which is now a road favorite in what appears to be very peculiar circumstances, plus two other baseball battles. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
MLB – (959) CINCINNATI at (960) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSOH, FSMW (side and total)
Cincinnati’s chances of catching the Cardinals are taking a hit having lost the first two games of the series and they are in desperate need of win as Arizona has crawled with four games (loss column) for the last National League wild card spot. The Reds will have to trust Homer Bailey (8-10, 3.71ERA), who is 0-5 with a 6.90 ERA over seven career starts in St. Louis. Gulp. St. Louis counters with Adam Wainwright (15-7, 2.58) who is attempting to become the senior circuit’s first 16-game winner and push his club’s hot streak to 10-2. The Redbirds -165 money was thought to be like double chocolate cake, a little too rich and lowered to -150. The total also took a hit was dropped from 8 to 7.5. The Reds and Bailey are only 12-23 against winning teams and they are 12-3 OVER versus teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game. SWM Take – St. Louis wins and Over
The Wiesguy is on a 16-8 hot streak in baseball, up over 15 units!
MLB – (965) TEXAS at (966) SEATTLE 3:40 ET FSSW, ROOT
Even King Felix is not bullet-proof, having lost two in a row to dump his record to 12-7 on the year. The first of the two setbacks was to Texas, where he allowed five runs in five innings because he was walked five batters. Hernandez (2.63) will seek revenge against the Rangers, but will not have full backing of those betting baseball. The Mariners were sent out as -135 favorites by oddsmakers and has come back ashore at -120 with a five-game losing streak in which they have scored just eight runs. As mentioned in the top trends yesterday, Texas is 43-16 vs. the AL West this season. SWM Take – Lean with Seattle
MLB – (971) BALTIMORE at (972) BOSTON 7:10 ET ESPN
Baltimore is still with striking distance of first place and the wild card, but have to do a better job of these two-for-one situations they have right now. The Orioles were treated like outliers in being blasted by Boston last night 13-2 and hand the ball to Bud Norris (9-10, 4.22) whom they traded for. Norris has been ineffective in his past three O’s starts with a 7.63 ERA and will face John Lackey (8-11, 3.17), who have received 2.4 runs of support in his last nine starts, which has included being shutout four times. Those betting baseball believe the Red Sox offense will rock for Lackey and pushed the Bean-Town bunch from -155 to -180. The BoSox are 21-7 off a two or more Over’s, however, the Birds are worth a look at 11-2 revenging a road loss of six or more runs. SWM Take – Boston wins
3Daily Winners Top Plays are 11-4, 73.3 percent this month.
MLB – (979) CLEVELAND at (980) ATLANTA 7:10 ET STO, SPSO
Atlanta has the best home record (45-18) and is the best home wager in baseball (+16.8 units). With Paul Maholm (9-10, 4.51) making his second start since coming off the DL, the Braves were released at -125. Yet those studying the baseball lines are not impressed with the lefthander and prefer the Indians Justin Masterson (14-9, 3.50), who will try to shutdown Atlanta’s lineup and flipped the Tribe to -110. Cleveland is a solid 24-19 against lefties and 27-12 as a road favorite of -110 or higher since 2011. Nonetheless, the Bravos are a solid 33-16 after two or more consecutive wins this season. SWM Take – Lean with Atlanta
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Cole Hamels and the Phillies are 3-10 playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MLB Totals Trend
John Lackey and the Red Sox are 15-1 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Wade Miley and the Diamondbacks are 10-1 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season the last two years.