As the anticipation builds to the start of the college football season, those betting on sports have to be patient. Baseball bettors have shown little patience and made both the Dodgers and White Sox significantly heavier favorites on the money line. We have four other contests which have seen more modest, yet important moves for Tuesday night. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
MLB – (903) MILWAUKEE at (904) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSWI, ROOT
Pittsburgh returns home after a West Coast swing, looking to end a brief two-game skid against their former nemesis Milwaukee. For years, the Brewers played the “Whose your daddy?” card on the pitiful Pirates, but this season, the Bucs have turned the tables and are 9-4 versus the Crew. Pittsburgh opened as a -155 favorite and has tumbled to -135 for these reasons. The Pirates Jeff Locke (9-4, 3.01 ERA) is 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA in his past six starts and is really struggling with control, with 14 walks in his past 18 innings. While Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse (9-8, 3.22) has gone 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last seven starts and he’s 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA (seven starts) against Pitt. Though the money line is down, the Pirates are still 42-22 at home. SWM Take – Pittsburgh wins
The Wiesguy is on a sweet 16-8 move in baseball, up over 15 units.
MLB – (907) CINCINNATI at (908) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSOH, FSMW
The Cardinals have flown into first place in the NL Central by winning eight of 10, including last night’s big come from behind victory over Cincinnati. With Mat Latos (13-4, 2.93) taking on the Cards Joe Kelly (5-3, 3.01), the money line has been jumping around. The Reds opened at -108, went to -125 before coming back to -120 in the early afternoon. Latos has controlled the Redbirds bats with a 1.50 ERA over his last four starts (3-0) against them. However, the fire-balling Kelly is 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA since rejoining the rotation July 6. Cincy is 40-20 when Latos starts, yet St. Louis makes this confusing with a 15-9 record as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. SWM Take – Lean with St. Louis
Doug Upstone is on a quality 31-22 run this month.
MLB – (923) KANSAS CITY at (924) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET FSKC, FSNO
According to probability websites, Kansas City only has a 3.2 percent chance of making the playoffs in the American League; nonetheless, they still are playing meaningful baseball games with September approaching. The Royals are trying to finish above the .500 mark for the first time in decade and is drawing the support of baseball bettors, up over 20 cents to -166 with James Shields (8-8, 3.22) taking the ball. In the first four months of the season, Shields too often lacked run support, but he is hoping the Royals bats stay hot, scoring 29 runs in their past four outings. After somehow managing to be within striking distance of .500, the Twins pitching has given out and the offense has stalled, sending them to 57-72. Minnesota is 10-30 in August the past three years. SWM Take – Kansas City wins
MLB – (929) CLEVELAND at (930) ATLANTA 7:10 ET STO, SPSO
It is not often when rookie starters meet the total goes downward, yet this is what happened with these two clubs. Cleveland’s Danny Salazar (1-1, 3.52) and Atlanta’s Alex Wood (2-2, 2.50) have both provided very good starts this month and given those studying baseball line the “onions” to lower the total from 7.5 to 7 in this interleague affair. The numbers certainly favor the situation with the Indians 29-13 UNDER on the road when the total is 7.5 or less and the Braves are 23-8 UNDER having won 18 or more of their last 25 games. SWM Take – Lean with the Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Texas is 42-16 against division opponents this season.
MLB Totals Trend
San Diego is 19-5 OVER after scoring one or less runs in a loss to a division rival the last two seasons.
MLB Run Line Trend
San Francisco is 1-15 when playing with a day off this season.