NFL preseason football continues and three more games have caught our attention for Friday, plus the two biggest line moves on the baseball diamond. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
NFLX – (263) MIAMI at (264) JACKSONVILLE 7:30 ET WFOR, WTEV
Miami failed as favorite in their first exhibition game and is looking for better results this time around against in-state partner Jacksonville. The Dolphins are slightly below average in total defense last season (21st) and have focused thus far on gap responsibility and stripping the ball. At this time, Jacksonville is Jacksonville until they prove differently and Blaine Gabbert is the only QB on the roster at least with potential. Those betting NFL games are unconvinced the Jaguars have the talent with frontline players and backups to be favorites over Miami and shifted them from -1.5 to +2. SWM Take – Lean with Miami
NFLX – (267) NEW ENGLAND at (268) PHILADELPHIA 7:30 ET WBZ, 6ABC
Tonight begins the unveiling of Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia experience against future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. Both coaches are dealing with adversity, the Eagles with ACL injuries to receivers Jeremy Maclin and Arrelious Benn and New England reworking the offense with three mainstay pass-catchers no t available in Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and the jailed Aaron Hernandez. Kelly’s crew is expected to play harder, as a victory of any kind is a confidence-builder. Both Michael Vick and Nick Foles are out to impress, while Tom Brady and the other New England passers will be concerned with timing issues. Philly was a 4.5-point pick and has slid to -3. The Patriots have won and covered three of four in Philadelphia. SWM Take – Lean with New England
NFLX – (277) DALLAS at (278) OAKLAND 10:00 ET KVTV, KTVU
After a pair of .500 campaigns and not being in the postseason for three years, Dallas is working on the details they hope lead to success in 2013. Coach Jason Garrett has focused his attention running the ball better on offense and creating turnovers on defense. In their opener versus Miami, the Cowboys ran the pigskin 34 times for 170 yards and had two fumble recoveries. Oakland is reshuffling its defense and needs repetition to provide continuity. Unfortunately, it has been one injured Raider after another, especially in the defensive line and chaos has ruled. This isn’t a good omen for Oakland if Dallas wants to establish the line of scrimmage and the Boys have gone from a Pick to -2. Raider Nation gets its first look at this year’s starting quarterback Matt Flynn. SWM Take – Lean with Dallas
MLB – (903) SAN DIEGO at (904) CINCINNATI 7:05 ET FSSD, FSOH
Cincinnati put the pitching debacle behind them against St. Louis and took both games against first place Oakland to maintain their Wild Card position over Arizona. The Reds are expected to continue winning versus a much lesser opponent in San Diego, especially in the series lid-lifter. Cincy opened at -160 with Bronson Arroyo (9-9, 3.62 ERA) taking pill for Dusty Baker and they jumped to over -180 on the money line. Arroyo is 2-0 (2.42 ERA) in his last four starts versus the Padres, who have hit .137 with runners in scoring position over its last nine games. Andrew Cashner (8-5, 3.80) will try to do his part to choke the Red offense, but his team is feeble in most Game 1 road situations with an 8-26 mark in away outings when playing on Friday’s the last three seasons. SWM Take – Cincinnati wins
MLB – (919) L.A. ANGELS at (920) CLEVELAND 7:05 ET FSW, STO
This time of year there are no secrets in baseball, teams fortunes can change, but for the most part you are who you are. The Angels are the biggest wagering disappointment in baseball -26.6 units, sporting a 51-62 record. Normally, not matter what, a Jered Weaver (6-5, 2.90) sighting is more than enough to tip the ledger in the Angels favor, but not these days. Oddsmakers sent the Halos out at -110 and after bettors studied the baseball lines, L.A. came back to shore at +105. Making matter worse is the Angels will have to face Scott Kazmir (7-4, 3.89), who did not work in Anaheim, yet has become an effective No.5 starter in Cleveland. The Tribe is 12-1 at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse in the second half of the season. SWM Take – Lean with Cleveland
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Atlanta is 16-3 after five or more consecutive wins this season. (Possible more than once)
MLB Totals Trend
Colorado is 13-2 UNDER vs. a NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season. (Possible all weekend)
NFLX ATS Trend
Depending the outlet, the Chiefs are 5-28-1 ATS in their last 34 NFLX experiences.
WNBA ATS Trend
Seattle is 13-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games the last three seasons.
CFL ATS Trend
Saskatchewan is 0-6 ATS in August games the last three seasons.