We have 11 NFLX matchups over the weekend and three in particular have significant line moves. Also, for Friday we uncovered a pair of baseball games in which the numbers are on the move. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
NFLX – (413) OAKLAND at (414) NEW ORLEANS 8:00 ET KTVU, WVUE
As mentioned previously, totals are way up for Week 2 of the NFL Preseason, with a whopping 13 of the 16 games for this week at 40 points or higher. (Last year there was none) New Orleans had 427 yards of offense last week, yet only scored 17 points and is presumed to have more success against Oakland’s reworked defense on the carpet. This has given those betting football the confidence to raise the total from 40.5 to 43 for tonight’s tilt. Chances are if this is going to happen, the first half needs to be around 30 total points. Of potential interest, the Raiders are 16-5 UNDER off a home win. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFLX – Saturday (425) GREEN BAY at (426) ST. LOUIS 8:00 ET
While experienced playoff teams often use this time to prepare for the regular season, being shutout is still an embarrassment, which is what happened to Green Bay in losing at Lambeau 17-0 to Arizona. The Packers offense produced an anemic 223 yards of offense and coach Mike McCarthy will be expecting more this week. St. Louis also was defeated in their preseason opener 27-19 at Cleveland, but accumulated 396 yards of offense. For those following the NFL betting lines, the Rams have been bet up to -4.5 from -3.5. Underdogs like the Pack with a losing record after falling as a home favorite are 43-18 ATS the past 10 years. SWM Take – Green Bay covers
NFLX – Saturday (427) DENVER at (428) SEATTLE 10:00 ET NFLN, Locals
For those that prefer to bet trends, it is no wonder Seattle has gone from -3.5 to -5. The Seahawks are a stunning 21-2 ATS in non-conference preseason games. To this point, Seattle has been about as close to a sure thing wagering on August football, however, it is starting to come at a price. Here is one aspect you have to think about. Off last week’s upset at San Francisco, the Broncos are 14-4 ATS in road games against NFC West. SWM Take – Lean with Seattle to cover
MLB – (963) N.Y. METS at (964) SAN DIEGO 10:10 ET SNY, FSSD
The Mets did something last night which they had failed to do the three previous games, put a team away late. New York scored three runs in the last two innings to break a 1-1 tie with San Diego and will seek similar results on Friday. Skipper Terry Collins hopes he can trust Jonathon Niese (4-6, 4.45ERA) to do the job and limit the Padres run production and the left-hander has 3.00 ERA over his last seven starts. The Friars have only won three times in their last 11 tries and are falling like an early morning reveler at the Gaslamp Quarter from -150 to -135 on the money line. The Pads are 2-11 at home having lost three of their last four games, but starter Ian Kennedy (4-8, 4.97) is 4-0 against the Metropolitans. SWM Take – Lean with San Diego
MLB – (973) SEATTLE at (974) TEXAS 8:05 ET ROOT, KTXA
Solid pitching matchup of Hisashi Iwakuma (10-6, 3.02) vs. Derek Holland (9-6, 3.07) has those betting baseball thinking – How low can you go? In this case, they took the opening number of 8.5 and pushed it to 8. Holland is 8-0 UNDER at Rangers Ballpark vs. AL teams with an on-base percentage .320 or worse this season. However, Iwakuma is 13-4 OVER if his club is off a loss the last two years and the Rangers are scoring 5.8 runs a contest during their Usan Bolt 14-2 sprint to first place. I would like to give the pitchers the benefit of the doubt but have seen WAY too much of the Mariners bullpen. SWM Take – Lean Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Oakland is 16-3 playing into triple revenge the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Trend
Kansas City is 24-6 UNDER vs. teams outscoring the opposition by 0.5 or more runs a game this season. (Possible all weekend)
NFLX ATS Trend
Kansas City is 0-10 ATS in Week 2 of the preseason.
CFL ATS Trend
Saskatchewan is 14-2 ATS at home versus teams averaging 6.9 or less passing yards per attempt since 1996. (Saturday)
WNBA ATS Trend
Washington is 0-7 ATS after a game where they made 45% or more of their 3-point shots the last two seasons.