On Tuesday, besides a few bloated money lines which have shrunk, most of the action is on the totals, which is where we will mostly concentrate. We will also offer up one WNBA contest. We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.
MLB – (901) SAN FRANCISCO at (902) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET CSBA, MASN
Much like the politicians in D.C., San Francisco and Washington have disillusioned the fan base this season. The Giants are done and are playing not to go from World Series champs to NL West cellar dwellers in one season. The Nationals need a double digit win streak to get back in the Wild Card conversation, trailing Cincinnati by eight games in the loss column. Washington has won three straight and sends Gio Gonzalez (7-5, 3.52 ERA) to toe the slap against Madison Bumgarner (11-7, 2.75). Both left-handed hurlers have suffered from a lack of run support. Bumgarner has thrown at least seven innings in his last 10 outings while posting a 1.77 ERA. The betting public has shown favoritism towards the home team, elevating them from -120 to -134. No doubt the Giants 22-34 road record plays into the equation, as does Gonzalez being 29-11 as a favorite of -125 to -175 the last three seasons. (Team’s record) SWM Take – Lean with Washington
MLB – (903) PHILADELPHIA at (904) ATLANTA 7:10 ET CSN, SPSO
Cole Hamels threw a complete game and limited Atlanta’s offense to a single digit last evening. Those betting on baseball do not believe Phillies starter Ethan Martin (1-1, 6.75) will have the same success and bumped the total from 8 to 8.5. The Braves had their chances Monday night, but were 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position. Kris Medlen (9-10, 3.85) has won his past three outings, yet has an ERA of 4.26 in those trio of starts. Martin will be vulnerable after the Atlanta hitters have a look or two and Medlen is not overpowering. The Bravos are 18-8 OVER after four or more consecutive home games this season. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (905) CINCINNATI at (906) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 ET FSOH, CSN
Homer Bailey (7-10, 3.73) has baffled opposing hitters and the Cincinnati front office for years. While his stuff can be electric enough to throw two no-hitters, he can also be raked like he was in his past outing against Oakland (5 runs, 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings). Bailey’s last four starts at Wrigley Field have all been victories while posting a 1.93 ERA. Jeff Samardzija (6-11, 4.23) surrendered a career-worst nine runs in his last outing and those betting baseball are not convinced he will hold the Cincinnati hitters in check and raised the total from 7 to 7.5. We agree a strong case can be made for the Under, however, we will follow the wagering masses. SWM Take – Lean with Over
MLB – (915) BOSTON at (916) TORONTO 7:07 ET NESN, RSN
In Ryan Dempster’s (6-8, 4.67) last five starts, he’s posted a 7.27 ERA, yet amazingly Boston has won each time. Dempster will oppose the Blue Jays Todd Redmond (1-1, 4.22), who was recalled to take Josh Johnson’s spot in the rotation. Like a big t-bone on the grill, bettors studying the baseball lines smell the aroma of the total and sent it from 9.5 to 10. Toronto comes into this division conflict 11-2 OVER at home after two straight games with one or less extra base hits and the Red Sox are 13-2 OVER playing against a team with a 38% to 46% win percentage this season. SWM Take – Play Over
WNBA – (601) CHICAGO at (602) LOS ANGELES 10:35 ET NBA-TV
Out West, we have of two of the best three teams in the WNBA meeting tonight. Chicago leads the Eastern Conference with a 15-7 and ranks fourth in scoring at 79.6 PPG. Los Angeles has a 16-7 record and trails Minnesota in the Western Conference, ranking second in points at 82.2. The total has jumped two points to 159.5 and is accurate if one is thinking just offense. However, these are two of the top four defensive squads when it comes to limiting points. We note Chicago is 7-1 UNDER after scoring 40 points or more in the first half of two straight games and L.A. is 8-0 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more. SWM Take – Play Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The L.A. Dodgers are 25-5 with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Texas is 28-8 UNDER after scoring two runs or less this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Pittsburgh is 21-4 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season.