Sports Watch Monitor NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 4


While Houston and San Diego have slipped slightly as favorites, there has been a ton of totals action and we have it all covered with this report along with updates from early in the week. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (153-113 L55D)

NFL – (253) GREEN BAY at (254) CHICAGO 1:00 ET  FOX  *NEW TOTAL*

Green Bay PackersWith how depleted the Chicago secondary ended their game on Monday night, bettors are forecasting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense will break out of their lethargy and put up points on the Bears. The Packers were +1-point underdogs on Sunday night but have been moved to 1.5-point favorites. It also helps how comfortable the Pack is in the Windy City at 18-5 and 17-6 ATS. Update– On Thursday, the Packers went to -2, where the side number has stayed since. However, because of what could be two weaker secondaries due to injuries and or mismatches, the total is up from 49 to 51. 75 percent are on Green Bay and 77 percent are backing the OVER.  SWM Take Green Bay covers and Over

NFL – (259) CAROLINA at (260) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET  FOX

The total in this non-conference clash is up from 39 to 40.5 and I’m not sure why. Carolina’s running game has been gutted by injured to running backs and a reconstructed offensive line and Cam Newton is playing hurt. Baltimore’s offense is merely average at this juncture and the Ravens are 10-0 UNDER off two covers as favorites. Update– This total has yet to crest, up to 42 or 42.5 depending on the sportsbook. Over 80 percent prefer that side. SWM Take– Play Under

NFL – (261) DETROIT at (262) N.Y JETS 1:00 ET  FOX

The Monday night affair also had an impact on another contest. The Jets literally gave the game away to Chicago and with a banged up secondary and their best receiver Eric Decker gimpy with a hamstring, New York flew from -1 to +1.5 against Detroit. The Lions were impressive in their win over Green Bay, but Detroit is just 6-17 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. Update– After moving to two for a couple days, the number is back to 1.5 and 68 percent are satisfied with the Lions. SWM Take– N.Y. Jets cover

NFL – (263) TAMPA BAY at (264) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET  FOX  *NEW*

After being whipped on the previous Thursday, Tampa Bay returns to action and according to Bucs blogs they are healthier, which in part has lead to the total rising from 43.5 to 45. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been above average leading to a potential higher score against the Buccaneers, who are 6-0 OVER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread.SWM Take– Slight lean Over


Philadelphia is thought to be a fraud at 3-0 and San Francisco is an underachieving loser at 1-2. Being back home bettors have jacked the Niners from -3.5 to -5, believing many of their mistakes are correctable. However, the 49ers have no touchdowns in the second half this season and the Eagles have eight. Hmmm Update– Most books are either at 4 or 4.5 as the game nears and total is now decreasing from 51 to 50 or many cases 49.5. The total adjustment is noteworthy because 74% on are the OVER, while 51 percent on flying with the Eagles.SWM Take– Lean Philadelphia and Play Under

NFL – (271) NEW ORLEANS at (272) DALLAS 8:30 ET  NBC  *NEW*

It took awhile, but as the week progressed, the total began to rise, up from 52.5 to 54. These NFC teams have met four times in the past five years and the OVER is 3-1. Both offenses have proven they can score and both defense have surrendered points. I’m not all in on this one however since the Saints are 13-3 UNDER versus NFC foes. SWM Take– Lean Under

NFL – Monday (273) NEW ENGLAND at (274) KANSAS CITY 8:30 ET  ESPN  *NEW*

Another total that has shown upward mobility is the Monday night battle. This AFC total has gone from 45 to 46.5, as football bettors see both quarterbacks having good games versus the opposing defenses. I did find one really fascinating number, when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and teams like New England are outscoring opponents by four or more points a game, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games, they are 29-5 OVER. SWM Take– Play Over

Top 3 Sides Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 4-5) – Atlanta, Indianapolis and Green Bay

Top 3 Totals Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, home teams, record 6-3) – Cowboys OVER, Colts OVER and Ravens OVER

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends


Houston is 0-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road the last two seasons.

NFL Totals Trend

Baltimore is 18-3 UNDER after two consecutive covers as a favorite

NFL First Half Trend

Jacksonville is 0-7 versus defenses allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry the last three seasons.


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