Here are you up to date line moves in the NFL with updates from earlier in the week plus a couple new games added. I did not include Minnesota going from +3 to +6 because we all know why that happened. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (123-99 L50D)
NFL – (253) MIAMI at (254) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
Each of these division rivals is off a quality outright upset. Miami won because of a suffocating second half defense and Buffalo made good use of a +2 turnover margin. The Dolphins appear to have the better talent and have been flipped from +1 to -1.5. The problem with backing Miami is recent 1-3 SU and ATS records with the Bills and a 6-17 ATS mark off an AFC East upset victory. The total has also been adjusted from 44.5 to 43 and that fits the trend in this series which is 6-1-1 UNDER in the past eight meetings. Update – Just as I thought in videos I did on this contest, Buffalo is back to being a favorite at -1 and the total has dipped even further to 42.5. A touch over 55% are still on Miami and 62% have placed their money on the UNDER. SWM Take – Miami covers and Under
NFL – (255) JACKSONVILLE at (256) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET CBS
Jacksonville was blanked in Philadelphia in the second half and Washington might has well have been in 17-6 loss in Houston. The Jaguars offense is continually behind in down and distance, which chokes off drives and the Redskins had 372 yards of offense and never found the end zone. This has led to the total sinking two digits to 43. Update – Half the sportsbooks reviewed are still at 43 and the balance have moved to 42.5. Oddly, 60 percent are riding the OVER. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – (257) DALLAS at (258) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET FOX
All things considered, the Dallas defense held up rather well, allowing 28 points to San Francisco in large part because the offense had four turnovers. Whether the Cowboys defense will continue to play this well is a question mark, especially on the road and the total has gone from 47.5 to 49.5. Tennessee is 15-5 OVER at home after outgaining previous opponent by 100 or more total yards. Update – About 70 percent of books checked are still at 49.5 and the remainder are at 49. Just over 70% of the money is on the OVER. SWM Take – Play Over
NFL – (259) ARIZONA at (260) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
On Sunday night, the side and total was released on this NFC contest before anyone had a chance to witness these teams play. New York was at -1.5 with a total of 45.5, but after football bettors got a good look at both, they rushed to make wagers. The Giants looked they were not ready for the regular season to start and were derailed by Detroit 35-14. Arizona showed gumption with a fourth quarter comeback and iced the win over San Diego late. These factors directly correlate to the Cardinals now as 2.5-point favorites. With how discombobulated Eli Manning looked again on offense and the Redbirds defense, the total has sunk to 43. Update – At last look most Vegas books still had Arizona at -2.5; however most offshore books checked had them down to -1 with 68 percent support. The total has eroded a bit more to 42.5, with 58% on the UNDER. SWM Take – Arizona covers and Under
NFL – (267) ST. LOUIS at (268) TAMPA BAY 4:05 ET FOX
Both these NFC offenses were shoddy in their first outings of the new season. St. Louis had a bit of an excuse, being forced to use third-string quarterback Austin Davis because of injury. Josh McCown never looked comfortable last week in the loss to Carolina until late. Tampa Bay is up from -3.5 to -5 and the Rams are 0-6 ATS away against the NFC. Update – The cash continues to come in on the Bucs, up to -5.5 or -6 this morning, with 72 percent of bettors in their corner. SWM Take – Lean St. Louis to cover
NFL – (275) KANSAS CITY at (276) DENVER 4:25 ET CBS *NEW*
Since the start of the NFL preseason, the Kansas City offense has look lethargic and scoring 10 points last week at home against Tennessee has not changed many opinions of how the Chiefs look. This is why since Wednesday; football bettors had no problem lowering the total from 52 to 50.5. Though Denver has been a great OVER home team since John Fox has been in the Mile High City (18-9), when teams like Denver are off a home win and facing a division foewhen the total is 49.5 or higher, they are 16-3 UNDER the past two years. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – Monday – (279) PHILADELPHIA at (280) INDIANAPOLIS 8:35 ET ESPN *NEW*
Both these teams awoke from a first half scoring slumber in Week 1 and those betting on football are certain this will continue, raising the total from 52.5 to 54. Both young quarterbacks are expected to be primed to execute their game plans against flawed defenses. Here is what I wonder about, when the total is 45.5 or higher for Colts home games, the average total score the past two years has been 48.2 PPG. SWM Take – Lean Under
Top 3 Sides Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 1-2) – New Orleans, New England and Seattle
Top 3 Totals Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, home teams, record 2-1) – Indianapolis OVER, Carolina OVER, Cleveland OVER
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS at home when the total is 45.5 or higher the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Houston is 18-4 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game in their history.
NFL First Half Trend
Atlanta is 13-32 ATS in road games after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game.