Excitement abounds as we head into the first full weekend of the NFL and we have the latest line moves and updates. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (117-86 L47D)
NFL – (463) NEW ORLEANS at (464) ATLANTA 1:00 ET FOX
New Orleans has looked like a team with legit Super Bowl aspirations and the wagering public likes what they see and moved the Saints from +2 from back in late June to -3 today. Both teams look improved, but New Orleans appears more complete as a team and very hungry and is 6-1 and 5-2 ATS in the Georgia Dome. Update – No change, with 77 percent praying the Saints win and cover. SWM Take – New Orleans covers
NFL – (467) CLEVELAND at (468) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET CBS
Only in the last 10 days has this line moved in this AFC North confrontation, which means it appears nobody was paying close attention. Pittsburgh has gone from -5 to -6.5, which makes all the sense in the world because the Steelers own Cleveland in the Steel City with a 19-2 and 14-7 ATS record. Update – Pittsburgh has moved to -7 and one would not think the oddsmakers would come off this number, instead juicing it up to avoid a middle. 78 percent are on the Steelers. SWM Take – Pittsburgh covers
NFL – (479) TENNESSEE at (480) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET CBS
Go ahead, give Alex Smith a fat contract, nobody cares, because nearly everyone is convinced the Chiefs 9-0 start was a mirage and this is a third place team in the AFC West. Kansas City has been lowered from -5.5 to -3.5 against an ordinary Tennessee bunch. K.C. is 5-19-1 ATS as home favorite the last seven years. Update – As of Saturday morning, Kansas City was at -3 and has stayed there despite almost 2-to1 action on the Chiefs. SWM Take – Lean Kansas City to cover (at this price)
NFL – (483) CAROLINA at (484) TAMPA BAY 4:25 ET FOX
One year after a revival, the betting public has already lost faith in Carolina and in this divisional opener; they have been switched from -2 to +2. While we agree the Panthers are not going to win 12 games again, but Tampa Bay is not exactly a NFC South contender and Carolina knows how to win in west Florida with an 8-5 SU record. Update – Tampa Bay has been altered to field goal favorite, with a couple offshore with typically sharper action still at -2.5. This large line move is driven by mostly wise guy money since the Bucs only have 60 percent of wagers placed.SWM Take – Carolina covers
NFL – (485) SAN FRANCISCO at (486) DALLAS 4:25 ET FOX *NEW*
After going up slowing, the total has been in overdrive since midweek, up to 51.5 from original number of 48. There is a number of reasons to back this thought process since the Dallas defense looks pathetic, especially against the run, which is what San Francisco does best. The 49ers defense line has been weakened by bad behavior of some of their players and Dallas has the weapons to score. Toss in these teams are 10-3 OVER and 6-0 OVER in Big D and this sure looks like the right side despite the value loss. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – Monday (489) N.Y. GIANTS at (490) DETROIT 7:10 ET ESPN
Evidently nobody was impressed with the Giants 5-0 preseason record, because New York is a growing underdog as they prepare for the opener in Detroit. The G-Men opened at +4 and the number is up to +5.5. But history buffs like me know the visitor is 8-0 ATS in this series, which is definitely food for thought. Update – The number continues to rise, up to 6.5 and a couple offshore books are at 7. Nearly 80 percent of bettors on Detroit. SWM Take – New York covers
NFL – Monday (491) SAN DIEGO at (492) ARIZONA 10:20 ET ESPN *NEW*
A bit mystified why the total on this non-conference clash has risen from 44 to 46.5. While both offenses have big play capabilities, both defenses were above average last year and at the moment do not appear to be dramatically worse. Found two different items that fit one for each thought process. The average score of a Chargers road game when the total is 45.5 or higher is 51.2 PPG, but when they are away underdogs of less than a touchdown, the typical score is 43.6 PPG. At this price I will lean one-way. SWM Take – Lean Under
Top 3 Sides Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Chicago, New England and Detroit
Top 3 Totals Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, home teams) – Atlanta OVER, Dallas OVER, Detroit OVER
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
San Francisco is 9-1 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Miami is 9-1-2 UNDER versus division opponents the last two seasons.
NFL First Half Trend
Buffalo is 4-10 as a road underdog the last two seasons.