Have to say, this has been one of the quietest weeks in terms of line moves I have seen by midweek in the NFL in years. Oh sure I still plenty to write about, but many of the moves happened on Monday and it has been quieter than New Orleans coaches talking about how great their defense was going to be before the season. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (128-103 L51D)
NFL – (451) SAN DIEGO at (452) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Buffalo is off to a 2-0 start and has been lifted from -1 to -2.5 because of San Diego’s situation. The Chargers upset Seattle at home on a short week and now have to travel three time zones to play a noon start out East. Football bettors think this is a taxing schedule and are lining up early with the Bills. Betting Trend – 59 percent backing San Diego
NFL – (459) MINNESOTA at (460) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
The adjustments on this NFC confrontation have to do with the Adrian Peterson news. With no A.P. for this week and the foreseeable future, Minnesota has been bumped up from +9.5 to +10.5, with the total shrinking from 51 to 49.5. Both line moves appear justified given how the Vikings played at home last week on offense without Peterson and the fact New Orleans has to be frothing after starting the season 0-2. Betting Trend – 81 percent backing New Orleans, with 56 percent on the Over
NFL – (463) BALTIMORE at (464) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Cleveland has played six strong quarters of football in a row and opened as a Pick against the hated Ravens who stole their team. Nonetheless, tradition runs deep and Baltimore is 10-5 SU and 9-6 ATS in Cleveland since 1999. The Ravens are still perceived as the better team and are up to -1.5 having covered five of the last six away. Betting Trend – Almost 79 percent backing Baltimore
NFL – (477) PITTSBURGH at (478) CAROLINA 8:30 ET NBC
The Pittsburgh defense has put in six shaky quarters of football as newer players are still adjusting, which has led to the total rising from 40 to 41.5. The belief is each team will do enough to surpass the sportsbooks original number. I also discovered a non-conference NFL system that is 23-5, 82.1 percent and it says to Play OVER when total is between 35.5 and 42 points on a team like Pittsburgh early in the season, who averaged 5.4 or more yards a play last year. Betting Trend – 62 percent betting the Over
NFL – Monday (479) CHICAGO at (480) N.Y. JETS 8:30 ET ESPN
With the Jets secondary unable to cover Jordy Nelson, it would appear New York would have an even harder time covering the Bears receiving contingent that is even larger and with wider bodies. Yet the money is following the Flyboys from a Pick all the way to -3. Maybe bettors feel Chicago’s luck runs out with a 1-9 ATS record after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Betting Trend – 67 percent backing Chicago
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
M. Bumgarner and the Giants are 10-0 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game on the season.
MLB Totals Trend
J.A. Happ is 17-5 UNDER if the Blue Jays are off a loss the last two seasons.
MLB Run Line Trend
B. Norris of the Orioles is 14-5 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse this season.