On Wednesday, we are reviewing the latest NFL football line moves and snuck in a NBA game which has the largest line movement in all of basketball so far today. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – Thursday (107) NEW ORLEANS at (108) ATLANTA 8:25 ET NFLN
On the topic of fall from grace, Atlanta hosted the NFC title game roughly 10 months ago and now they are among the worst teams in the NFL. Those making NFL picks are long past thinking the Falcons can generate any revival and taken these Birds from +7 to +9 as division home underdogs. Atlanta is 2-10 ATS playing against a team with a winning record the last three seasons.
NFL – (209) TAMPA BAY at (210) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
Break up the Bucs after their first two triumphs of the season, allowing the hot seat to cool for head coach Greg Schiano. With Tampa Bay’s offense improving and Detroit sixth in points scored (26.5), the total is bulging like the veins in Tom Brady’s neck after Monday’s game from 45 to 48.5. The Bucs are on a 6-0 OVER streak and the Lions are 13-4 OVER as favorites.
NFL – (211) JACKSONVILLE at (212) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
The total for this AFS South lousy matchup has gone from 42 to 43.5. And why not Houston is 28th in points allowed (27.6) and Jacksonville is 31st in conceding 31.8 PPG. More opportunities for points exist with the Jaguars -7 in turnover margin differentials and the Texans are -11. The two teams are a combined 14-7 OVER this season and seven of the previous 11 contests in Houston have flown past the number.
NFL – (227) INDIANAPOLIS at (228) ARIZONA 4:05 ET CBS
Ask any football aficionado who has the better team, Indianapolis or Arizona and the most likely answer would be the Colts. Yet for the Bruce Arians Bowl, the Cardinals are attracting most of the action, being lifted from -1 to -2.5. That is certainly curious since Indy is 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road the past two years and the Redbirds are 0-6 ATS after a contest with a turnover margin of +2 or better in the same time span.
NFL – (231) DENVER at (232) NEW ENGLAND 8:30 ET NBC
With a matchup of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, guess which way the total went for this upcoming conflict? That’s right, upward, with the total lifted two digits to 55.5. New England is 8-1 OVER versus offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards a game, while Denver is 13-3 OVER after scoring 25 points or more in two straight outings. Only the weather keeps this below the oddsmaker number.
NFL – (233) SAN FRANCISCO at (234) WASHINGTON 8:40 ET ESPN
The ‘mishap’ known as the Washington Redskins might be excited to be on Monday Night football, however, the wagering numbers are trending to the superior team. San Francisco was released at -3.5 and almost immediately went to -5. With the 49ers solid defense, San Fran is 6-0 ATS against opponents surrendering 24 or more points a game since last year.
The largest line move in the basketball to this point today has been the total in this East Conference clash. The opening total of 189 has fallen off the cliff 186.5. There is good reason to think this could be true with the Knicks offense scuffling at 93.5 PPG (25th) and Indiana the top scoring defensive team in only allowing more than 91 points once in 10 games. The Pacers are a 6.5-point road favorite and they are a perfect 7-0 UNDER in that role this season. SWM Take – Play Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB Totals Trend
Toledo is 6-0 UNDER versus offensive teams averaging 450 yards or more a game the last two seasons.
NBA Totals Trend
Washington is 12-2 UNDER as a road underdog of six points or less the last two seasons.
CBB Totals Trend
Iowa State is 9-0 OVER versus teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points a game since last season.
NHL Totals Trend
Ottawa is 8-0 OVER after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game the last two seasons.