Here is our look at the latest NFL football line moves including a couple of games on Thursday with free picks. The Sports Watch Monitor will take Thanksgiving off to eat turkey and enjoy the games and return on Friday. Almost forgot, all the Top Trends are for Thanksgiving, enjoy. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – Thursday (305) OAKLAND at (306) DALLAS 4:30 ET CBS (side and total)
Are those making NFL picks setting themselves up for failure? Tony Romo and Dallas had a clutch win against the Giants and they had been plumped up from -6.5 to -9.5 by Tuesday, before falling back to -8.5 for Thanksgiving. The Cowboys probably deserve to be such a good-sized favorite, but haven’t we seen this movie before where Oakland ends up winning 16-14 is just as likely? Dallas is 0-6 ATS in home games playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season the last three seasons. The total is fluffing up like sweet potatoes from 45.5 to 47, but Oakland is 7-0 UNDER after allowing 375 or more total yards in consecutive games. SWM Take – Leans with Oakland and Under
NFL – Thursday (307) PITTSBURGH at (306) BALTIMORE 8:30 ET NBC
To the surprise of few, the total of this always heavy-hitting battle has fallen from 42 to 40.5 points. Both offenses are scuffling and each defense has begun to play back towards previous years. Many might not know in the past 17 years these combatants are actually 22-15 OVER, but, when the total closes in the 40’s like the earlier confrontation this year, the UNDER is 5-1-1 in the same time span. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – (425) TENNESSEE at (426) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
Who are the Indianapolis Colts? Everybody wants to remember their victories over San Francisco and Seattle, but are the now slow-starting Colts closer to the team St. Louis and Arizona has blown out? Indy has lost the trust of those making sports picks and has been dropped from a touchdown choice to -4 against AFC South rival Tennessee. These clubs are 11-3 UNDER at Indianapolis.
NFL – (429) JACKSONVILLE at (430) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Those making football bets were so taken with the news Brandon Weeden is being reinstalled as the Cleveland starting quarterback because Jason Campbell is injured, they took the Browns from -10 to -7. Of course, Jacksonville having won two of three plays a part in this scenario, but these two clubs have more negative trends than Toronto Mayor Rob Ford.
NFL – (441) ST. LOUIS at (442) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET CBS
As impressive as San Francisco was on Monday in Washington, they are not convincing everyone they should be a double digit favorite and have been dropped -10.5 to -8.5 against a St. Louis bunch which has covered three of four. The key for the 49ers is the passing game, since they are 12-2 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt.
NFL – (443) NEW ENGLAND at (444) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
The Houston Texas are ranked last in the most recent ESPN Power Ratings, having lost nine in a row, including the last being the most embarrassing in a season full of embarrassment to Jacksonville. This mentally soft squad has gone from +4.5 to +7 against a grittier New England club who showed their grit in coming back from a 24-0 deficit versus Denver. Houston is 2-9 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS at home.
NFL – (445) CINCINNATI at (446) SAN DIEGO 4:25 ET CBS
According to the latest NFL odds, points will be tallied in this AFC encounter as the total has flown from 45 to 48. Both squads are coming off 41-point offensive efforts, which might have some influence. However, we are thinking the other way, especially now, knowing Cincinnati is 18-6 UNDER in road games when the total is 45.5 points or higher.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Pittsburgh is 2-10 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive Under’s the last three seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Detroit is 7-0 OVER vs. teams averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game the last three seasons.
CFB ATS Trend
Texas Tech is 3-11 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses the last three seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
Mississippi State is 12-3 UNDER in home games off a road win.