A number of baseball games which had short favorites have seen them flipped and we have the biggest one covered along with two other contests. Plus, we have the big Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs following the total. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NHL – (81) LOS ANGELES at (82) ANAHEIM 9:05 E NBCSN
In this intense series, the UNDER is 3-1-2 and because it is a Game 7, sport bettors are expecting conservative, close to the sweater hockey game. This Freeway Faceoff opened at Un5 (-125) and has been bet up 10 cents to -135, with a midday look finding a Godzilla-like 90 percent on the UNDER. Going below the total would certainly seem the safest bet, as both goalies and defensemen would seem to be at their best with what is at stake. SWM Take – Play Under
MLB – (909) SAN DIEGO at (910) COLORADO 8:40 E FSSD, ROOT-RM
Colorado is thrilled to be at Coors Field after they completed their road trip 1-5, which includes three straight losses. Though the Rockies are averaging a league-best 7.7 RPG at home and taking on Eric Stults (2-3, 5.03 ERA), baseball bettors are concerned about a hangover of at least one game, especially with San Diego on a nice 5-1 spurt. Colorado was a -170 opening favorite and is now under -155 on the money line. However, they have an ace up their sleeve in Jorge De La Rosa (4-3, 4.81), who is 8-0 if his team is off two or more consecutive losses. (Rockies record) SWM Take – Colorado wins
MLB – (917) DETROIT at (918) BOSTON 7:10 E FSD, NESN
The way Detroit is playing this year and how Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.04) has been pitching; it was eye-brow rising to see the Tigers flipped from -115 favorites to +100 underdogs against Boston and Jon Lester (4-4, 2.75). Upon close inspection, we found Scherzer is 2-4 with a 7.02 ERA in regular season matchups with Boston and including postseason contests, the Cy Young winner has dropped four straight at Fenway Park. Also, since the start of the 2007 season, the Red Sox are 21-8 at home versus the Tigers. One stellar consideration in Detroit’s favor, they are 8-0 vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game this season. SWM Take – Lean Detroit
MLB – (927) TAMPA BAY at (928) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 E SS, FSW
The Angels escaped with a victory last night with four runs in the ninth inning, highlighted by Mike Trout’s three-run walk-off jack. Even with the fortunate W, this Anaheim team is only 5-15 in the past 20 meetings with Tampa Bay when playing at the Big A. This must be the reason the baseball bettors are backing the Rays, as they have cascaded from +150 to +130 underdogs against Jered Weaver (4-2, 3.22). The lanky right-hander while often criticized for not throwing as hard as he used to, is 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last five starts. SWM Take – Los Angeles wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
Indiana is 8-4 and 7-5 ATS when hosting Miami the past three years. (Sunday)
MLB Money Line Trend
Philadelphia is 4-22 after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs the last two seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
Los Angeles is 5-0 in elimination games these playoffs.
ARENA ATS Trend
Iowa is 0-7 ATS in home games after one or more straight up losses the last two seasons.
WNBA ATS Trend
Defending champion Minnesota was 27-11 ATS as favorites last season.