It turns out despite 13 games on the MLB board, not much movement except for a few games involving pitching changes which have caused line moves. Instead we will touch on a couple of topics that could lead to futures profits. The Line Moves will return tomorrow and like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
Baseball bettors should hit the road with top teams
As we head towards the Memorial Day weekend, everybody plucking down cash betting baseball should be aware of these numbers. If you review the six division leaders, you find five of them are more profitable on the road than at home. While this seems impossible, it is not and here is why. Thus far in the 2014 season, home teams are 350-337, which is barely over 50 percent.
Thus far the best teams in baseball (by division) other than Atlanta are getting it done on the road. Discounting the Braves, each of these clubs has an offense which has variety and not locked into one style of play. Some days they hit home runs, the next that are spraying the ball around the yard and drawing walks. In each case the starting pitching is well above average and the bullpens have certain strengths. Here is a breakdown of each division leader, with their home and away records and the units they have won or lost. (Thanks Covers)
San Francisco – 15-10 Away (+7.09 units) 14-8 Home (+3.71 units)
Milwaukee – 14-9 Away (+7.99) 14-10 Home (+146)
Oakland – 18-6 Away (+11.32) 12-10 Home (-2.58)
Detroit – 14-7 Away (+5.74) 13-8 Home (-0.28)
N.Y. Yankees 13-10 Away (+2.96) 11-11 Home (-3.58)
Atlanta 10-11 Away (-0.51) 15-9 Home (+3.57)
We do understand teams like this have more to lose on the money line at home compared to the road where the betting odds are different; nonetheless, these division leaders are 84-53, 61.3 percent in away games and 79-59, 57.2 percent when playing at home, which is a significant disparity.
Pucks and Hoops
Unless Montreal has some L.A. Kings magic, I have a hard time thinking they can win two in New York. If Game 2 did not bring the desperation, I’m not sure what being on the road at MSG will do for them. The Rangers have looked so incredibly confident and they looked no worse for wear after also playing a seven game series in the last round. One potential difference between the two teams is Boston is far more physical than Pittsburgh and that could have taken a toll on Montreal and the Rangers were more used to dealing with speed than the Canadiens who were facing a more plodding Bruins squad.
Look for this to happen: San Antonio ends up with the gentlemen’s sweep of Oklahoma City splitting two road games and winning in Game 5 at home. Ibaka or no Ibaka, the Spurs are playing at a different level then the Thunder, so unless Durant and Westbrook score 75 combined in each home game, this series is over.
Game 3 will tell us all we need to know about Indiana. If they have heart and courage, they come up and retake the home court edge. If not, they likely return back to the Hoosier State down 3-1 in the East Finals. IMO, two hard betting choices the next two games.
The Los Angeles Kings are by far the wackiest team in the NHL Playoffs and if they would go on the win the Stanley Cup, you could write a movie about their playoff run which includes being 6-3 on the road and 3-3 on home ice to this point. The Kings unfathomable six unanswered goals comeback has to shake Chicago who has won 18 of 20 playoffs games and they had a 2-0 lead last night late into the second period. Game’s 3 and 4 should be something.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The Yankees are 0-6 in recent visits to play the White Sox.
MLB Totals Trend
Washington in 9-2-1 OVER and an underdog of late.
NHL Money Line Trend
New York is 1-11 when leading a playoff series.