Four afternoon games on the MLB Wednesday board and San Francisco has taken the biggest plunge in falling 20 cents as favorites, having lost 11 of 14. Here are four other line moves tonight to ponder. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (12-9 L6D)
MLB – (907) CINCINNATI at (908) CHIC. CUBS 7:05 E FSOH, WGN
Cincinnati has owned the Cubs at Wrigley Field of late with a 20-5 mark. Yet enough baseball bettors are convinced Chicago has a shot at a win and lowered them from +130 to +112 on the money line. Mat Latos (0-0, 3.86 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last six starts against the Cubs, and he’s 3-0 (3.12 ERA) in four career visits at Wrigley. Chicago counters with Edwin Jackson (5-7, 5.12), who has 1.88 ERA in his last four home starts (3-0) and has won three straight decisions over Cincinnati. The game could come down to stopping hot hitters, with the Reds Devin Mesoraco 11 for 24 with five homers, 13 RBI’s in his last seven games and the Cubs Anthony Rizzo is 11 for 24, with three homers and six RBIs in his past six contests. SWM Take – Cincinnati wins
MLB – (909) MIAMI at (910) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 E FSFL, CSN-P
Both Henderson Alvarez (4-3, 2.39) and A.J. Burnett (5-6, 3.89) have been razor sharp in their past several outings, which is why it seems odd those making MLB picks raised the total from 7.5 to 8. Alvarez has a miniscule 0.68 ERA over his last six starts and Burnett has a 2.22 ERA in his three trips to the slab. Philly is a modest -112 favorite and Miami is 20-12 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. On the other hand Burnett is usually stronger in the first part of the year and is 17-6 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season since 2012. SWM Take – Lean Under
MLB – (915) DETROIT at (916) TEXAS 8:05 E ESPN2
After playing abominable baseball for most of June, Detroit has bounced back like Ford Motors in winning five in a row. The Tigers hitting and pitching has come around and those generating baseball bets have juiced Detroit from -140 to -152. The Tigers Anibal Sanchez (4-2, 2.33) has not lost since April 21 in supplying a 4-0 record and it would be even better except for bullpen failures. Texas counters with Joe Saunders (0-3, 4.11), which appears to be a mismatch since opposing batters are tearing into his tosses this month for .368 average. With the total at nine, Detroit is 10-2 on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. SWM Take – Detroit wins
MLB – (929) CLEVELAND at (930) ARIZONA 9:40 E STO, FSAZ
Arizona won a 9-8, 14-inning marathon last night, leaving both clubs spent. Those studying the betting odds prefer Cleveland tonight, boosting them from -115 to -128. Based on records, this a hard decision since Cleveland is one of the worst road teams in baseball at 14-25 (-10.1 units) and the D-Backs have the poorest record in the bigs at 15-29 (-17.8). Both starting pitchers have not won lately, but have continued to throw well. Corey Kluber is 6-5, with a 3.30 ERA and the Snakes Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.18) has been the lone bright spot in a dismal rotation in 2014. Let’s take a shot on the home underdog who is 7-0 in their building versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better. SWM Take – Lean Arizona
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The L.A. Angels are 20-5 playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Trend
Milwaukee is 10-0 UNDER in home games vs. a bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Cleveland 4-14 in road games vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse the last three seasons.