Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves, Top Trends and Free Picks for the Weekend


This is supposed to be the week where all 32 teams put on their future Sunday-best in anticipation of the regular season. Here is a look at the four key matchups with line moves for this weekend and the free picks that go along with them. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (93-70 L40D)

NFLX – (253) JACKSONVILLE at (254) DETROIT  7:30E  WXYZ7

Jacksonville has quietly put together a very good preseason and looked sharp in all facets. While the talent level is not in place, coach Gus Bradley appears much more in control and football bettors are paying attention, taking the Jaguars from +4.5 to +3. Detroit has played in a couple of one-point outcomes winning once, but conventional wisdom is these are the same old Lions until proven differently. Detroit however is 10-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. SWM Take – Lean Detroit to cover

NFLX – (255) CAROLINA at (256) NEW ENGLAND  7:30 E  Panthers TV, WBZ

New England PatroitsNew England being a public team is always going to get the benefit of the doubt from those betting football and the Patriots have been elevated from two points to -6.5. New England took advantage of four Eagles turnovers last week in scoring 42 points, while Carolina would appear to be a negative situation coming off a double digit home triumph. New England is clearly the better offensive team, but the Pats have dropped six straight against the number in Week 3 of the preseason and could be had. SWM TakeLean Carolina to cover

NFLX –Saturday(265) DALLAS at (266) MIAMI  7:00 E  KTTV, CBS4

The Cowboys defense has not looked like it could not stop a local peewee football team in surrendering 64 points in two games. And while Miami’s offense is far cry from resembling the Dan Marino days, the total has shot up two points to 46.5. These teams have met the past two years and gone Over the number, yet I am convinced this figure is a little too high and will go against the grain. SWM Take – Lean Under

NFLX – Saturday(271) NEW ORLEANS at (272) INDIANAPOLIS  8:00 E  CBS

It’s is not unusual for Indianapolis to look feeble in August, they have been doing it for years. Having started 0-2, the money is on the Colts to post their initial win especially at home against a squad like New Orleans who is 2-0. It’s not like Indy has been turrible (Charles Barkley reference), with both setbacks by only four total points and they have been moved from -1 to -2.5. In most cases I would agree, but this is Sean Payton coaching and he never gives an inch which is why his team his teams are 10-1 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less this month. SWM Take – New Orleans wins

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

Baltimore is 18-4 vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game in the second half of the season. (Watch for weekend)

MLB Totals Trend

The White Sox are 16-3 OVER playing on Friday this season.

MLB Run Line Trend

Baltimore is 23-3 on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season. (Watch for weekend)


Seattle is 8-0 ATS as a favorite the last three seasons.

NFLX Totals Trend

Tennessee is 14-1 OVER in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. (Saturday)


Chicago is 2-11 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.


Edmonton is 15-2 ATS after allowing nine points or less points in last game since 1996.  (Saturday)


Arizona is 9-2 ATS teams outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG on the season the last two years. (Saturday)


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