For Monday, of the major line moves, seven of the eight teams are from the American League. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (22-12 L9D)
MLB – (957) TEXAS at (958) BALTIMORE 7:05 E FSSW, MASN
Ubaldo Jimenez (2-8, 4.70 ERA) has a bad combination going. He has not pitched very well and he has the worst run support in baseball at 2.45 per start. Though the Rangers Joe Saunders is 0-4, with 5.19 ERA (0-7, 6.22 ERA, L11 starts) with Texas, those betting baseball are siding with Texas against Jimenez and Baltimore, lowering them from +145 to +130. If you believe in good karma, Saunders is 7-0 vs. Baltimore (Team’s record is 9-1). However, the Rangers are 6-18 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. SWM Take – Lean Baltimore
MLB – (959) OAKLAND at (960) DETROIT 7:05 E CSN-CA, FSD
Marquee series to start the week (Rays and Yankees in ESPN tonight, please) has the two betting favorites at sportsbooks to win the AL. Those making MLB picks have focused on the total, moving it from 8 to 8.5, not 100 percent sold on Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.66) or Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 2.64), despite their fine earned run averages. Oakland does punish pedestrian bullpens and they are 18-8 OVER in road games versus pens whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 the last two seasons. And the Tigers are 7-0 OVER after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season. SWM Take – Lean Over
MLB – (963) KANSAS CITY at (964) MINNESOTA 8:05 E FSKC, FSNO
The Twins limp home after a 1-5 road trip, but Kansas City failed to take advantage of a nine-game homestand with a 3-6 record, losing 5.5 units. The Royals Danny Duffy (4-7, 2.69) has been splendid this month, posting a 1.71 ERA and .164 opponents’ batting average. Unfortunately he’s just 2-2, as K.C. scored one run in his last two starts, both losses. Despite the Royals having a MLB-best 8-2 road record in June (+7.45 units), they have been taken down from -130 to under -120. Minnesota comes into this game 3-16 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. SWM Take – Lean Kansas City
MLB – (971) CLEVELAND at (972) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 E STO, SNET1
The Dodgers have are 16-7 since June 6 and Cleveland is 16-27 (-10.2) on the road, nevertheless, Corey Kluber (7-5, 3.09) is preferred by those generating sports picks over Dan Haren (7-4, 3.83) of Los Angeles. This interleague contest began as a Pick and the Indians are presently a -116 betting choice. Kluber and the Tribe are 14-2 against teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game since last season and Haren is 3-9 in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse the past three years. (Team’s Record) Still hard to ignore Cleveland is 6-11 in last 17 and is 12-29 on the road in interleague play, while the Dodgers are 16-8 against the AL. SWM Take – Lean Dodgers
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The White Sox are 3-19 with a rested bullpen who has thrown two or fewer innings in each of the last two games since last season.
MLB Totals Trend
San Diego is 13-1 UNDER after allowing four runs or less in four straight games this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
The Mets are 14-1 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start the last two seasons.