Both afternoon affairs have seen line moves, but we focus our attention on the evening action in MLB, WNBA and CFL play. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (15-10 L7D)
MLB – (953) N.Y. METS at (954) PITTSBURGH 7:05 E SNY, ROOT-P
At the beginning of the season, Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-1, 2.68 ERA) was in the New York bullpen and Vance Worley (1-0, 1.98) was not on the Pittsburgh 25-man roster. Nearly three months later they will oppose each other as starting pitchers. Baseball bettors are not convinced each will throw to recent form and pushed the total up from 7.5 to 8. There is reason to believe this could happen since the Mets are 12-4 OVER away after one or more Over’s and the Pirates are 24-10 OVER after six or more road contests. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (967) DETROIT at (968) TEXAS 8:05 E FSD, FSSW (side and total)
Detroit has won six straight and Texas has fallen seven times in a row. In spite of this and what appears to be a very favorable pitching matchup for the Tigers, they have tumbled from -135 to -121. Granted, Rick Porcello (9-4, 3.76) had a bad outing against the Rangers earlier this year (eight runs and 12 hits) and Nick Martinez (1-4, 4.22) has his lone victory over Detroit. But Martinez has a 7.05 ERA in his past three starts and Texas is 12-21 after allowing eight or more runs. The total has dropped significantly from 10 to 9, but we are not buying it with Detroit 11-2 OVER after cranking out six or more extra base-knocks and these two combatants are 6-0 OVER this season. SWM Take – Detroit wins and Over
WNBA – (601) ATLANTA at (602) SAN ANTONIO 8:05 E
Atlanta just had their six-game SU and ATS win streak stopped by New York and will look to build another starting in San Antonio. Basketball bettors prefer the Dream on the road and moved them from a Pick to -2. The move is justified because Atlanta is the better offensive and defensive team but they are just 2-3 and 1-4 ATS on the road. However, the Stars are no prize on their home court at 3-4 and 1-6 ATS. If Angel McCoughtry has her typical game, the Dream should cover; just remember they are 3-11 ATS as visiting favorites. SWM Take – Lean San Antonio
CFL – (321) TORONTO at (322) WINNIPEG 8:35 E ESPN3.com
It is opening night in the CFL and already football bettors are pouncing on sportsbooks lines. Winnipeg is off a horrible 3-15 campaign which prompted a coaching change. With the Blue Bombers installing new systems and having relative inexperience at quarterback, the betting public lifted the East Division champion Toronto Argos from -5 to -7. Toronto is 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in recent gathering and Winnipeg is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. SWM Take – Toronto covers
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals are 30-53 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters.
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Brad Ausmus and the Tigers are 13-1 OVER vs. a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450.
MLB Run Line Trend
Manager Terry Collins and the Mets are 4-16 after batting .315 or better over a five-game span.