The last weekend of July is here and there are many terrific baseball series to choose from. For our needs, we found four significant line moves to choose from which include free picks. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (57-43 L25D)
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MLB – (903) ARIZONA at (904) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 E FSAZ, CSN-P
How bad has it gotten for Phillies fans? Their team is now tied with Arizona with a 44-58 record and despite the Diamondbacks having lost seven of their last 10 on the road and posting a 3-13 record in the City of Brotherly Love, Philadelphia is blowing up like Rob Kardashian waistline from +110 to +130 home underdogs. In truth, the numbers tell the story, with the Phillies 20-32 (-14.2 units) at home and starter Kyle Kendrick (4-10, 4.87 ERA) sporting an ERA of almost a touchdown in his last six starts (6.99) and at nearly double digits (9.92) in his past three outings. Juxtapose those numbers with the Snakes Wade Miley (6-6, 4.16), who has a 1.84 this month. Sorry Phillies fanatics.SWM Take – Arizona wins
MLB – (905) WASHINGTON at (906) CINCINNATI 7:10 E MASN, FSO
The hangdog look and blood shot eyes of the Cincinnati players has to do with a 0-6 road trip, where the offense scored a grand total of 12 runs, moving the Reds close to the Cubs and further way from first place Milwaukee. Tonight’s opponent Washington on the other hand is averaging over 11 hits a game in their last seven tries, which has helped take them from -104 to over -120. Alfredo Simon (12-4, 2.74) will face Tanner Roark (9-6, 2.91) for a second time this year, after beating him 2-1 back in May. While the Reds have been rough around the edges, they and Simon are 16-2 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this season. SWM Take – Cincinnati wins
MLB – (917) BOSTON at (918) TAMPA BAY 7:10 E MLB-TV
This has the makings of a special matchup in more ways than one. Begin with the starting pitchers, Jon Lester (10-7, 2.50) and David Price (10-7, 3.06), who are both at the apex of their games. Toss in the feuding these teams do every series and whose interest would not be peeked! The Rays are soaring with an 18-5 record the last month and opened as -150 favorites. Those betting baseball are not overlooking Lester’s unfathomable 0.39 ERA in his past three starts and tapped Tampa Bay down to -134. While there is every reason to play the Rays, the BoSox are 11-2 after surrendering eight or more runs and with Lester, they are 9-1 when the total is seven or less. SWM Take – Boston wins
MLB – (923) CLVELAND at (924) KANSAS CITY 8:10 E STO, FSKC
The scuffle for second place in the AL Central continues and the underdog is where the betting action is. Cleveland was a +125 pooch and is down 15 cents to +110. Bettors are not trusting Yordano Ventura (7-8, 3.59), who throws hard but is more up and down have a Navy Seal in training. Ventura and Kansas City are 3-7 at home this season and that is offset by Cleveland being 22-32 in away games. No easy answers here, thus we will back the home team. SWM Take – Lean Kansas City
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Texas is 1-14 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Could happen again this weekend)
MLB Totals Trend
San Diego is 21-6 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. (Could happen again this weekend)
MLB Run Line Trend
San Francisco is 15-3 after five or more consecutive road games this season.
ARENA ATS Trend
New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. offensive teams scoring 45 or less points a contest. (Saturday)
CFL ATS Trend
Toronto is 7-0 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 340 or fewer yards a game the last three seasons. (Saturday)
WNBA ATS Trend
Atlanta is 15-2 ATS at home after scoring 75 points or more the last two seasons.