Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves, Top Trends and Free Picks for Friday

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A big weekend of baseball ahead and we start if off with all the biggest line moves on the Friday night docket. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (18-12 L8D)

MLB – (913) CINCINNATI at (914) SAN FRANCISCO  10:15 E  FSO, CSN-BA

Cincinnati RedsFor long time bettors who used to read the newspaper every day, the total on this National League affair is a trip down memory lane. With excellent pitchers Johnny Cueto (7-5, 1.86 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (9-4, 2.63) facing each other, those betting baseball threw the total off the bridge from an already low 6.5 to 5.5. Back in the late 1960’s, a 5.5 total was not uncommon, but these days, not so much. Cueto has the best ERA in baseball and Bumgarner is 17-5 UNDER if his team is off a loss. This seems like too much of a correction and we’ll go the other way. SWM TakePlay Over

MLB – (919) TAMPA BAY at (920) BALTIMORE  7:05 E  SS, MASN2

This is Game 2 of a day/night doubleheader and in each instance the betting odds are going towards Tampa Bay. In the nightcap, the Rays have gone from +115 to -107 favorites, which makes little sense. The Rays have been favored in 77.5 percent of their games yet have the worst record in baseball and are -22.3 units in that role. In theory, this could work to Baltimore’s advantage since O’s starter Chris Tillman (6-4, 4.45) is 23-11 pitching at night and a wonderful 8-2 when placed in the role of underdog in 2014. (Team’s record) SWM Take – Baltimore wins

MLB – (921) MINNESOTA at (922) TEXAS  8:05 E  FSN, TXA-21

How does Texas end its eight-game losing streak, according to those making sports picks play Minnesota. The Rangers opened as -130 home favorites and have been rode to -140 or higher. Two factors play into this, for starters the Twins have lost eight in a row themselves, all on the road. While Kevin Correia has pitched much better lately with an ERA 1.00 in last three outings, he’s still 4-8 with 5.02 ERA. Let’s be honest, this a hard one and somebody has to end a streak tonight and we’ll lean towards the home team to do so. SWM Take – Lean Texas

MLB – (927) CLEVELAND at (928) SEATTLE  10:10 E  STO, ROOT-NW

Searched the internet trying to figure out why Cleveland would go from +120 to a -114 favorite at Seattle. Yes it is understood the Mariners are just 19-21 (-5.9 units) at Safeco Field, but the Indians are 15-25 on the road, down a futile -9.1 units. Trevor Bauer is no prize (2-3, 4.40) and in seven road starts is 0-4 with a 7.53 ERA. Contrast that with Chris Young (6-4, 3.23), who has won four of his last five starts at Safeco and is 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA over his last six overall. Think about this, the Tribe is 21-40 away after four straight games of stranding eight or more runners on base. SWM Take – Seattle wins

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

St. Louis is 30-5 revenging a loss as a road favorite the last two seasons. (Could be in play again this weekend)

MLB Totals Trend

Baltimore is 13-1 UNDER in home games against division opponents this season. (In play all weekend)

MLB Run Line Trend

Philadelphia is 15-44 after a win by two runs or less the last two seasons. (Could be in play again this weekend)

ARENA ATS Trend

Jacksonville is 0-8 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by seven or more PPG on the season since 2012.  (Saturday)

WNBA ATS Trend

New York is 0-7 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 77 or more points a game this season. 

CFL ATS Trend

Saskatchewan is 8-0 ATS in the first month of the season the last two seasons. (Sunday)

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