Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves, Top Trends and Free Picks for Friday


Quite a bit of activity on the Friday board and we passed on some of the bigger line moves only because they were large favorites which were just growing. Instead, we found four contests worth considering and you should check out the free picks, because they have been going good. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (45-27 L18D)


Important series, as each NL Central club looks to climb closer to faltering Milwaukee. Cincinnati was released by sportsbooks at -130 on the money line and has caved to under -115. With no Joey Votto or Brandon Phillips, those betting baseball realize Pittsburgh is not the Cubs. Mat Latos (2-1, 2.41 ERA), takes the ball for the Reds and he’s 5-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 11 starts against the Pirates. Despite losing three of four to St. Louis, the Bucs remain positive and they like their chances with Jeff Locke (2-1, 3.08) starting, having won his last five decisions. Cincy has taken seven of 10 in the series to date. SWM TakeLean Cincinnati

MLB – (909) ST. LOUIS at (910) MILWAUKEE  7:10 E  FSMW, FSOH

After coasting for two months, Milwaukee has hit the skids in losing nine of 10 and with cruel irony; they take on St. Louis, who has won 13 of 19 at Miller Park the past three seasons. Those generating sports picks are undeterred by these events and lifted the Brewers from -130 to -140. Rest assured one of the reasons is not Yovani Gallardo (5-5, 3.45), who is 1-12 lifetime against the Cards with a Man vs. Food-sized 6.38 ERA. Possibly they believe the return of Joe Kelly (1-1, 0.59) will work against the Redbirds and the massive loss of Yadier Molina. Let’s give a slight tip of the hat to the Brew Crew who is 8-1 after a setback by eight or more runs and St. Louis is only 8-19 on the July road since 2012. SWM Take – Lean Milwaukee

MLB – (917) N.Y. YANKEES at (918) BALTIMORE  7:05 E  YES, MASN

Baltimore OriolesThe Yankees received the bad news on Masahiro Tanaka, who is out at least six weeks, yet they have to move forward and they still are only four games behind first place Baltimore. Hiroki Kuroda (6-6, 4.20) will attempt to cool off Baltimore’s Steve Pearce, who is hitting .367 at Camden Yards.  Miguel Gonzalez (4-5, 4.22) will be in charge of containing New York and he’s 2-2 (3.72 ERA) against Yankees. As far as the outcome, we find the Yanks are 7-0 in road games playing with double revenge this season. SWM Take – Lean New York

MLB – (929) MINNESOTA at (930) COLORADO  8:40 E  FSNO, ROOT-RM

Colorado has fallen 18 of 23 times and still is a growing favorite at home in interleague action. With Kris Johnson making a spot start from Triple-A for Minnesota and Carlos Gonzalez name supposedly penciled into the Rockies batting order for the first time since early June, the Rocks have climbed from -145 to -160. And while this all makes perfect sense, the Twins just took three at Seattle and Colorado is 10-22 vs. the AL since last season and 4-18 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse in the same time span. Talk about your impossible calls! SWM Take – Slight lean with Minnesota

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

Boston is 15-1 after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR the last two seasons. (Could apply again in series)

MLB Totals Trend

Colorado is 12-1 OVER at Coors after seven or more consecutive home games the last two seasons. (Could apply again in series)

MLB Run Line Trend

Texas is 6-22 with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. (Could apply again in series)


Arizona is 13-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road the last two seasons.(Saturday)


Indiana is 7-0 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.


British Columbia is 2-13 ATS after scoring nine points or less in last game. (Saturday)


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