As we head into the Triple Crown weekend, we go baseball-heavy in searching for line moves. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (951) MIAMI at (952) CHIC. CUBS 4:05 E FSFL, CSN-C
Show of hands, who this season would have thought the Marlins and Cubs would go into any weekend series this season together without a loss in any given week? Well quicker than you can say Steve Bartman, it happens to be true and we flashback to 2003 when these two teams met in the playoffs. Oddly enough, baseball bettors are backing the last place Cubs, raising them from -107 to -124 on the money line, liking the way Jason Hammel (6-3, 2.78 ERA) has been pitching. While Miami has been somewhat more effective in their road uniforms, they are still 10-17 and 5-16 after two or more consecutive road games this season. SWM Take – Lean Miami
MLB – (955) PHILADELPHIA at (956) CINCINNATI 7:10 E NBA-10, FSO
Johnny Cueto (5-4, 1.68) leads the majors in ERA and opponents’ batting average (.151), but his team has never beaten Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.01), period. The Phillies lefty is personally 9-0 against Cincinnati with a minuscule 1.49 ERA and all together Philadelphia is a perfect 12-0 when Hamels starts. This is why the Reds have turned from -160 to -145 favorites, because of the uncertainty this causes despite the Phils on a six-game losing streak. What could turn the tables in Cincy’s favor is they are 12-0 with Cueto starting at home if they are off a loss. SWM Take – Cincinnati wins
MLB – (961) WASHINGTON at (962) SAN DIEGO 10:10 E MASN2, FSSD
The Nationals are showing signs of life after sweeping Philadelphia and winning five of six, yet those betting baseball are unconvinced Washington is ready to roll. The Nats were sent out by sportsbooks at +100 and have been pumped up to +115 at San Diego. The Nationals Tanner Roark (3-4, 3.25) has a sharp ERA of 2.25 in his last three starts, but on the season his road earned run average is 5.65 and his team is 2-3 in those outings. The Padres Tyson Ross on the other hand has a 1.54 ERA in the Grand Canyon (Google – Petco Park) and his team is 4-2 thus far. This has been a rotten role for Washington who is 6-25 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since last season. SWM Take – Lean San Diego
MLB – (971) CLEVELAND at (972) TEXAS 8:05 E STO, TXA-21
With Yu Darvish (5-2, 2.08) on the hill, Texas is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. an AL team with batting average of .265 or lower the last two seasons. It is little wonder the total has fallen like a cowboy having one too many Lone Star’s from 8.5 to 8. Also making a contribution is Indians hurler Trevor Bauer (1-2, 3.63), who has 29 punch-out’s in 22 1/3 innings and he’s throwing better since demoted to Triple-A in the spring. The Rangers are 13-2 UNDER at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 and Darvish toes the rubber. SWM Take – Play Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
San Francisco is 13-2 vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season.
NBA ATS Trend
Miami is 8-0 ATS away after a game with 35 or less rebounds the last two seasons. (Sunday)
NHL Money Line Trend
New York is 7-1 on the road playing into double revenge. (Saturday)
ARENA ATS Trend
Iowa is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents the last three seasons. (Saturday)
WNBA ATS Trend
Minnesota is 15-3 ATS after four or more consecutive wins the last two seasons.