The Stanley Cup Finals commence and the betting public has altered the line on Game 1. In addition, we have three baseball line moves and free picks to ponder. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NHL – (51) NEW YORK at (52) LOS ANGELES 8:05 E NBC
This headline essentially explains the series – King Henrik vs. the Kings – For New York to win the series, goalie Henrik Lundqvist will have to lock the cage and be a fortress. Los Angeles has better center-men, a decided edge in working the corners with their size, yet has plenty of skill to pass the puck and score. New York has to depend on its netminder and speed and in opener. Despite playing just one fewer contest in the postseason, the Blueshirts have enjoyed an extra three days off, which is a key reason why Rangers backers give them a legitimate chance to steal Game 1 and lowered the money line from +140 to +130. The one detriment in the first encounter of The Finals, the favorite is 7-0 since 2007. SWM Take – Los Angeles wins
MLB – (963) TORONTO at (964) DETROIT 7:05 E SNET, FSD
In a tussle between two American League division leaders, it looks like a Dina Lohan vs. Angelina Jolie mismatch. Including last night, Detroit has lost 11 of 15 and all facets are failing, starting and relief pitching and the bats have gone frostier than Coors Light. Toronto on the other hand is on a 17-4 runoff and has won nine of 10 in the United States. Though Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.82 ERA) has arguably been the Tigers most consistent starter the last month, Detroit has been throttled down from -130 to -111. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (5-4, 4.30) and the Jays are 19-10 as underdogs since last season. SWM Take – Lean Toronto
MLB – (975) ST. LOUIS at (976) KANSAS CITY 8:10 E FSMW, FSKC
Thus far, the I-70 series has been more one-sided than this past season’s Super Bowl (OK maybe not that bad). Kansas City marched into St. Louis and took both contests and returns home feeling pretty spry. Baseball bettors are becoming increasing convinced the Cardinals are just an ordinary bunch of birds and for tonight have flown the Cards from -140 to under -120 favorites. Yes, Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.32) is coming off an ugly outing, but he has the most wins in the NL (105) since joining the rotation in 2007. Nonetheless, it is the Redbirds offense which has been languishing at 3.8 RPG and they are even worse against left-handed starters like Jason Vargas (5-2, 3.39), with a 5-9 record, average 3.6 RPG. SWM Take – Lean St. Louis
MLB – (977) MILWAUKEE at (978) MINNESOTA 8:10 E FSWI, FSNO
In this Border War series, the two teams have split the initial two contests, which moves to the land of 10,000 lakes. Milwaukee continues to be one the big surprises of 2014 and was released as -120 road favorites, but has been sent to under -105. It is not clear as a Minnesota lake why the Brewers are a sinking choice, at least from the starting pitching perspective, since both have been struggling to put it mildly. Marco Estrada (5-2, 4.03) has an ERA over 6 in his past three outings and is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in three career starts against the Twins. Ricky Nolasco (3-5, 5.70), gave up one run in six innings in his last start, bringing his ERA to under six. Here is a potential key; Minnesota is 18-42 in home games playing against a team with a winning record since last year. SWM Take – Milwaukee wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
L.A. Dodgers are 0-7 at home after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Pittsburgh is 16-3 UNDER in day games this season.
NHL Money Line Trend
Los Angeles is 12-2 at home against defensive teams allowing 2.4 or fewer goals a game since last season.