A slow Monday and it is reflected in the betting odds and line moves in which pickings are rather thin. We did find three to choose from and report on them accordingly. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (957) MINNESOTA at (958) MILWAUKEE 7:20 E FSN, FSWI
It is easy to speculate the betting public made a mistake in lifting the total from 8 to 8.5 especially when one considers the Milwaukee is 14-3 UNDER at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. Nevertheless, a closer look at the pitching matchup has Matt Garza (2-4, 4.84 ERA) versus Kyle Gibson (4-4, 4.18). These two ball-chuckers are a combined 14-7 OVER this season and the Twins Gibson is 4-1 OVER on the road thanks to a 7.77 ERA. Garza is 19-10 OVER against teams which strikeout seven or more times a contest and the Brewers are 12-0 OVER at Miller Park vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse the last three seasons. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (959) KANSAS CITY at (960) ST. LOUIS 8:10 E ESPN
This I-70 series features two teams from the “Show Me” State, who are not impressing sportsbooks. They and sports bettors see two offenses not averaging four runs a game and they need to be shown more production. At least for tonight, baseball aficionados are thinking a touch more offense is possible, moving the number from 7.5 to 8. There is some sense to this since St. Louis is 17-10 OVER at home and is a -150 home favorite. On the other hand, Kansas City needs to pulluate its road offense, since they are 33-11 UNDER as an away underdog of +100 to +150 the past three seasons. SWM Take – Lean Under
MLB – (961) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (962) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 E CSN-C, SNLA
How bad is the Dodgers situation at home? Because they are 12-17 (-12.4 units) at Dodger Stadium, even though Los Angeles has Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 3.57) pitching, they have buckled as -210 money line favorites to under -200. Sans Yasiel Puig, the rest of the Dodgers offense has been about as useless as any V. Stiviano story. L.A. will face Jose Quintana (3-4, 3.61) and they are scoring a putrid 3.0 RPG against left-handers this year. Kershaw is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two matchups against the White Sox, but is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 17 interleague starts, including a 0.75 ERA in his last three. SWM Take – Los Angeles wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The Mets are 10-1 in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Trend
Miami is 20-6 OVER off a setback this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Tampa Bay is 0-10 in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span this season.