Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves, Top Trends and Free Picks


A pitching change has made Cleveland a larger favorite today and in spite of the pitching matchup between Hisashi Iwakuma and James Shields, the total is rising in Kansas City. Here is a look at four MLB contests with line moves and why they could be on the move. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (6-4 L3D)

MLB – (951) PITTSBURGH at (952) CHIC.CUBS  4:05 E  ROOT-P, WGN

Everyone understands Edwin Jackson (4-7, 5.11 ERA) of the Cubs is only a few rungs above a batting practice pitcher and Charlie Morton (4-7, 3.09) of the Pirates is no fan of Wrigley Field with a 5.94 ERA in six career starts. Those betting baseball took these two starters, added in a bit of a wind blowing out to right field and jumped on the total taking it from 7.5 to 8.5. Jackson has actually been better in – The Friendly Confines – with a 3.22 ERA in six home starts, but he’s 8-1 OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. You have to consider Pittsburgh is 20-5 UNDER in day games this season and the later afternoon start means more shadows for hitters, however, the Bucs are also 13-2 OVER in road games after a one run win. SWM TakeLean Over

MLB – (953) ATLANTA at (954) WASHINGTON  7:05 E  FSS, MASN2

Atlanta BravesAtlanta allows 21 runs to Philadelphia at home in being swept by the Phillies, but the sight of a Nationals uniform makes the Braves feel all better and they whipped the Nats 3-0 last night. Atlanta is now 6-1 this season against Washington and 14-8 in D.C. the past three years. This is why those making MLB picks have shifted the Bravos from +160 to under +145 on the money line. Neither Mike Minor (2-4, 4.42) or Stephen Strasburg (6-5, 3.06) has been good against the opposing team, though Atlanta is 24-7 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 2012. Washington should win, but!! SWM Take Lean Washington

MLB – (973) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (974) MINNESOTA  8:10 E   CSN-C, FSNO

Ricky Nolasco (4-5, 5.66) has been a significantly better pitcher at Target Field with a 3.66 ERA and he and his teammates are burgeoning favorites, up 20 cents to -140. Among the reasons why are Chicago has dropped eight of 12 games, the starting rotation has a 5.43 ERA and tonight’s starter Hector Noesi (2-5, 5.37) has made a contribution. This does get trickier with Nolasco having a bloated 6.63 ERA in three career starts versus the Pale Hose and Minnesota having lost 12 of 20 at home to Chicago the past three seasons. One key could be the White Sox are 17-42 in road games after scoring two runs or less since 2012. SWM Take – Lean Minnesota

MLB – (977) TEXAS at (954) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 E  FSW

Joe Saunders (0-2, 3.46) used to pitch for the Angels and has bounced around the big leagues since being traded away and returns to Anaheim in search of his first win with his new team in six starts. When looking over the original betting odds, bettors making sports picks look at Saunders and the Halos Garrett Richards (6-2, 2.87) and see a world of difference and beefed up Los Angeles like Ben Affleck for his new Batman movie from -165 to -195. With sportsbooks posting a total of 8.5, that would seem to favor the home team who is 22-8 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. SWM TakeAngels win

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

Seattle is 11-1 in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) this season. (Could occur again this weekend)

MLB Totals Trend

Miami is 12-1 OVER after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span this season. (Could occur again this weekend)

MLB Run Line Trend

Tampa Bay is 0-13 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season. (Will occur again this weekend)


Arizona is 12-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road the last two seasons. (Saturday)


Atlanta is 9-0 ATS in home games off a home win the last 2 seasons. 


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