As is usually the case, a couple of chalky favorites (Dodgers and Cardinals) have come down on the money line while Atlanta is going up. Here are line move matchups on sides to totals to consider and why. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (901) CINCINNATI at (902) PITTSBURGH 7:05 E FSOH, ROOT-P
Johnny Cueto (6-5, 1.85 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all season, lacking run support, keeping him from having a better record. The right-hander is 15-4 with a sterling 2.15 ERA in 23 career regular season starts versus Pittsburgh, including a 9-2 mark (1.81) in a double-bakers starts at PNC Park. However, the Pirates offense is heating up with Andrew McCutchen swinging a white hot stick and the Bucs play has been improving. Baseball bettors are giving Pitt a shot this evening, lowering them from +120 to under +110. It could all depend on how Brandon Crumpton throws (2-2, 6.06) and don’t forget the Pirates at home after an off day has been like stealing with a 15-3 record. SWM Take – Lean Cincinnati
MLB – (909) MILWAUKEE at (910) ARIZONA 9:40 E FSWI, FSAZ
Could not figure out how Milwaukee was an underdog last night, winning 9-3 and those betting baseball are making sure that doesn’t happen again, moving the Brew Crew from -104 to -120. Here is a way to look at the pitching matchup tonight and you can draw your own conclusions. Kyle Lohse (7-2, 3.00) has allowed fewer walks (14) than the Diamondbacks Wade Miley (3-6, 4.71) has home runs (16). With the D-Backs among the worst home teams in baseball (12-23, 14.1 units – does not include ‘home’ losses in Australia) and the Brewers among the best road wagers (22-14, +10.6) and crushing lefties with a 12-4 record. Why not bet Milwaukee? SWM Take – Milwaukee wins
MLB – (919) MINNESOTA at (920) BOSTON 7:10 E FSNW, NESN
Solid pitching matchup in Bean Town has the total tumbling from 8.5 to 8. Phil Hughes (7-2, 3.17) will encounter Jon Lester (7-7, 3.33) and both hurlers should enjoy success and are backed up by quality bullpens. Boston has offensive issues and is only averaging 4.0 RPG at Fenway and is 7-0 UNDER after allowing three runs or less in four straight games this season. The Minnesota offense has been chillier than the lakes along the Canadien border, with a recent 5-1-1 UNDER mark. SWM Take – Lean Under
MLB – (929) SAN FRANCISCO at (930) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 E CSN-BA
While the Giants are still a super bet, those making MLB picks are understandably nervous after the San Fran bullpen was knocked around like a WWE wrestler against Colorado over the weekend. Matt Cain (1-4, 3.84) continues to be hittable and the total in this interleague clash has climbed from 8 to 8.5. Though John Danks (5-5, 4.17) has been going well of late, the Giants are 15-9 versus left-handers and they are 40-23 OVER as a road favorite of -110 or higher the last three seasons. SWM Take – Play Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Phil Hughes and the Twins are 7-0 after a game where he did not walk a batter this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Tom Milone and the A’s are 16-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last three seasons.
MLB Run Line Trend
Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are 14-3 in road games the last two seasons.