With just the World Cup and a few other minor sports, baseball rules the next several months as many handicappers continue to work on college and pro football to prepare for the upcoming season. Here are today’s main line moves for a Monday. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (953) CHIC. CUBS at (954) MIAMI 7:10 E CSN-C, FSFL
After setting a blistering early pace, Miami have lost six of nine at Marlins Ballpark, while the Cubs are coming off their first road series win of the season and it’s first in Philadelphia since 2001. With Tom Koehler (5-5, 3.68 ERA), the Marlins were sent out as -120 money line favorites. However, Koehler has a 7.25 ERA in his past four outings and with Jason Hammel (6-4, 2.81) having one of his best seasons and the subject of trade rumors, Miami’s number has headed south to -105. Here is a good reason to be wary of Chicago tonight; they are 0-10 on the road off a victory. SWM Take – Miami wins
MLB – (955) N.Y. METS at (956) ST. LOUIS 8:10 E ESPN
These two National League teams are both averaging under four runs a game, yet tonight’s total has blossomed from 7.5 to 8. What gives? A lot of the switch could have to do with the starting pitchers relative inexperience, with Jacob deGrom (0-3, 3.44) facing Carlos Martinez (0-3, 4.67). Another factor could the Cardinals sudden ability to go yard, having eight home runs in their last seven games, after producing only nine in the previous 26. It doesn’t hurt the Mets are 9-1 OVER in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 10-game span this season either. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (961) L.A.A. ANGELS at (962) CLEVELAND 7:05 E FSW, STO
We have two strong currents colliding at Progressive Field and something has to give. Jered Weaver (7-5, 3.51) is 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in nine career starts at Cleveland, while the Indians have the best home record in baseball at 21-11 (+7.4 units) and they have won nine in row near Lake Erie. Those betting baseball prefer the home team when it comes to wagering, lowering them from +110 to -106 favorites. Neither team comes in playing especially well, though the Tribe is 32-14 in home games after two or more consecutive wins. SWM Take – Lean Cleveland
MLB – (971) SAN DIEGO at (972) SEATTLE 10:10 E FSSD, ROOT-NW
Both these West Coast clubs have hit the skids of late and it would appear hard to justify why San Diego would go from a +115 underdog to a -119 road favorite. Yes, Tyson Ross (6-5, 2.97) has been more generally effective than his mound opponent Chris Young (5-4, 3.68) and the Padres right-hander has a dandy 2.16 ERA in his past four away outings. But Young has a 2.58 ERA at Safeco and his team has won four of his six starts. Granted, you cannot discount the Friars have won seven of 10 in Seattle, while the Mariners have dumped 13 of their last 18 interleague home battles. SWM Take – Lean Seattle
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
St. Louis is 28-5 revenging a loss as a road favorite the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Trend
Boston is 9-0 UNDER after allowing three runs or less in three straight games this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Kansas City is 14-2 in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game this season.