There is a very good chance the hockey season will end tonight, but the wagering action has been balanced to this point. Not the case in baseball, where a lot attention has been on the totals, but we did find a couple of larger line moves on the sides action also. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
MLB – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 E WGN, CSP
This is a bit of a surprise! The Cubs opened as +115 underdogs and have been driven to a Pick. Not sure ultimately if this betting news will hold, because Chicago is 11-24 on the road and not unexpectedly has dropped four of five. Though Philadelphia has won three straight, this does point to the fact of what bettors think of Roberto Hernandez (2-4, 4.35 ERA) and the fact the Phillies are 2-10 after three or more consecutive victories. Also worth pondering is the Cubs Jake Arrieta (1-1, 2.50) is 6-0 if his team is off a pair of losses. (Team’s record) SWM Take – Lean Philadelphia
MLB – (917) MINNESOTA at (918) DETROIT 7:05 E FSNO, FSD
While Kyle Gibson (5-5, 3.91) was impressive in his last outing, on the road it has been a different story where he’s 0-4 with an 8.61 ERA in his last five away outings. Drew Smyly (3-4, 3.81) has not exactly resembled Clayton Kershaw, with an ERA of 6.00 in his past three trips up the mound, never getting past the sixth inning. Add these factors together and those betting baseball have sent the total form 8.5 to 9. Minnesota is certainly poised to fly past the sportsbooks number being 8-1 OVER with a day off and 14-4 OVER after three or more road contests. Detroit also fits the bill at 14-4 OVER having lost three of four. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (919) CLEVELAND at (920) BOSTON 7:10 E STO, NESN
After a hot start, Cleveland has cooled on their road excursion with three defeats in a row. Though the Indians have lost seven of nine at Fenway Park, they are gathering support, cascading from +140 to +130. Justin Masterson (4-4, 4.61) is the main reason, posting a 1.72 ERA in his last trio of starts, which included seven shutout innings versus Boston. If the Tribe is to have success, they will need Jason Kipnis and Lonny Chisenhall to keep hitting against John Lackey (7-4, 3.18). Though the Red Sox have been a disappointment, Cleveland is 12-23 on the road. SWM Take – Lean Boston
MLB – (929) L.A.A. ANGELS at (930) ATLANTA 7:35 E FSW, FSS
The total of this interleague battle has risen from 7 to 7.5 and let me explain why. First, Aaron Harang (4-5, 3.33) has a Lake Lanier-sized ERA of 7.59 against the Angels, which included being lambasted four times when with Seattle last season. Secondly, while C.J. Wilson (7-5, 3.32) is 6-0 with a 3.33 ERA in his last 11 regular season starts against the NL, he’s 16-2 OVER as a visitor under the lights. Seems pretty simple! SWM Take – Play Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Atlanta is 0-6 in interleague play this season.
NHL Money Line Trend
Los Angeles is 10-1 at home after two straight games where four or fewer total goals were scored.
NBA ATS Trend
San Antonio is 8-1 ATS home after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half this season. (Sunday)
ARENA ATS Trend
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS after one or more straight up wins this season. (Saturday)
Atlanta is 11-0 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more the last two seasons.