Baseball bettors were busy adjusting the lines in afternoon action. We will focus our attention to the night games on the diamond and Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NBA – (705) SAN ANTONIO at (706) MIAMI 9:05 E ABC
Hoops bettors are sure the Spurs will not shoot 59 percent again and are of the opinion Miami makes adjustments, which is why the total has fallen from 198 to 196.5. If this was the same Heat squad defensively of the past three seasons, this would make sense, but this group no longer digs in and plays hard man to man and as mentioned previously, tries to play passing lanes, which is why San Antonio’s ball movement diminishes their effectiveness. The Spurs are 21-9 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and Miami is 8-1 OVER off a home favorite defeat this season. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (961) MILWAUKEE at (962) N.Y. METS 7:10 E FSWI, SNY
Kyle Lohse (7-2, 3.27 ERA) has been a key contributor to the Brewers being at the top of the NL Central and baseball bettors are thinking he will bring them some cash tonight. Depending on the sportsbook, Milwaukee opened at around -105 and has been bumped up to -120. Based on prior performances against either team, neither pitcher is entirely appetizing with Lohse 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 lifetime starts versus New York and is 0-2 (6.28 ERA) in three outings at Citi Field. Jonathon Niese (3-3, 2.68) deserves a better record based on how he thrown, but the lefty has a 5.68 ERA in five lifetime starts against Milwaukee. Overall, the Brew Crew seems like the safer bet being 7-0 vs. a NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse with Lohse toeing the rubber this year. SWM Take – Milwaukee wins
MLB – (963) TORONTO at (964) BALTIMORE 7:05 E MASN2
The Blue Jays offense has gone colder than a Jay Z stare, scoring seven runs in their last five contests, being shut-out three times. Those betting baseball love the profits Mark Buehrle (10-2, 2.04) has delivered at +9.2 units, but are dubious about Toronto’s offense and flipped Toronto from -120 to +101 underdogs. Jays’ hitters will see plenty of gas from Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman (1-1, 4.91), who was throwing 96 to 98 MPH fastballs in his last outing against Oakland. Though Buehrle and the northern birds have yet to lose on the road this year (6-0), they are 7-14 at Camden Yards recently. SWM Take – Lean Baltimore
MLB – (965) CLEVELAND at (966) BOSTON 7:10 E STO, NESN
The pitching matchup of Josh Tomlin (4-2, 3.12) vs. Jon Lester (6-7, 3.52) along with having two of the better bullpens in the American League has sent the total south. The oddsmakers starting figure of 8.5 has been lowered to 8. Boston’s offense has been a disappointment all season at 3.9 RPG and they are 22-8 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. On the other hand, Cleveland averages 4.6 RPG and is 19-7 OVER in road games vs. teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs a contest. SWM Take – Lean Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Manager Terry Collins and the Mets are 16-35 in home games after scoring one run or less.
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Brad Ausmus of Detroit is 11-1 OVER after two or more consecutive losses.
NBA ATS Trend
Miami is 13-2 ATS off a home loss the last two seasons.