Odd occurrence today. The Tigers and White Sox were rained out yesterday and as we reported the total went from 8 to 8.5. Today, with the same starting pitchers in place, the oddsmakers sent to the total out at 9 and it has been bet down to 8.5. I guess the wagering public is comfortable at 8.5! For the third straight day, the Giants line is moving against them at home. Here is what else we found and like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NHL – (705) LOS ANGELES at (706) NEW YORK 8:05 E NBCSN
Somewhat surprisingly, New York is a growing favorite, up to -140 or higher on the money line after beginning at -130. Though the Rangers could have won either or both of the first two games in The Finals, they did not, failing to hold three leads of two goals. In Game 3 they missed tremendous opportunities to score and Los Angeles capitalized on every miscue and goalie Jonathan Quick was quick as a cat and played with exceptional confidence. Though the Kings would probably love to win the Cup on home ice, there is no reason to let New York feel good about themselves and they move to 9-1 on the road riding a four-game winning streak. SWM Take – Los Angeles wins
MLB – (903) SAN DIEGO at (904) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 E FSSD, CSN-P
It is a mystery why the Phillies have fallen from -140 to -125. Yes, Philly has lost eight of 10, but since 2009 they are 26-8 against San Diego. Cole Hamels (2-3, 3.49 ERA) does not have great numbers, however he owns a 2.11 ERA over his last six starts and is 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 11 matchups with the Padres. We are the first to acknowledge Hamels and Phils are 10-20 as a favorite of -110 or higher since last season, yet this seems like a bargain price and will bet it. SWM Take – Philadelphia wins
MLB – (905) MILWAUKEE at (906) N.Y. METS 7:10 E FSWI, SNY
Though the Brew Crew is 22-10 OVER on the road, those betting baseball are not convinced this will happen in the Big Apple tonight. The sportsbooks total of 7.5 has been lowered to 7. Jacob DeGrom (0-2, 3.19) has not posted a win, but has a stellar 1.83 ERA in three home starts and he’ll face a Milwaukee lineup which has gone frosty in recent games. Wily Peralta (5-5, 3.03), should not have many issues containing the Mets offense which has scored 3.6 RPG in their last seven tries. The Brewers are 16-4 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5, nonetheless, they are 21-9 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game with Peralta pitching. SWM Take – Lean Under
MLB – (923) N.Y. YANKEES at (924) SEATTLE 10:10 E YES, ROOT-NW
The Yankees might only be 32-31 on the season, but when Masahiro Tanaka (9-1, 2.02) is on the mound, they play like the Bronx Bombers under Joe Torre. Baseball bettors are quick to ignore Seattle’s Chris Young (5-3, 3.42) is having a pretty strong return as a starter and have blown up the Pinstripes from -165 to -180 or higher. New York fits a few different systems that suggest they have an over 80 percent chance to win, still, it is at least worth noting the Mariners are 6-1 as an underdog of +150 or more and 8-2 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season. SWM Take – Yankees win
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Miami is 8-0 in interleague play this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Detroit is 10-0 OVER vs. a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
NHL Totals Trend
Los Angeles is 5-0 OVER when attempting to close out a playoff series this season.